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Your Easy 10-Step Staking Plan For Low-Risk, Steadily Growing Horse-Racing Wins!
Added: (Fri Jan 04 2008)
Your Easy 10-Step Staking Plan For Low-Risk, Steadily Growing Horse-Racing Wins!
Placing a bet on just one horse in a race guarantees you have every other horse in the race running against you. Dutching can help you swing the odds more in your favor.
Friday January 4th 2008.
Dutching is a system of backing two horses in a single race to guarantee you a set target profit whichever horse wins. Because you have two good horses on your side, a better than average success rate is assured.
Of course, when you back two horses to win the same race, one will always lose - but if you follow this clever staking plan, you'll always make a net profit whichever of your selections wins.
Register with The Racing Post web site. It's perfect for use with this system. You'll have access to all the information you need, and Registration is FREE.
Eliminate all Amateur Races, Ladies Races, Apprentice Races, Selling Races and any race with 'novice' in the title. All are something of a lottery.
Eliminate all races where the Betting Forecast favourite is 10/11 (1.91) or shorter in the Best Odds list. There isn't enough profit in such short-priced runners to make this system viable. (You'll find the Betting Forecast on the Racing Post online racing card for each race, under the list of runners, and the Best Odds list on the extreme right of the racing card.)
For all qualifying races, find the horse with the highest Racing Post Rating. The figures you want are on the right of the racing card, under the heading 'RPR'.
Select races in which the highest RPR horse ran most recently. The number of days since a horse last ran is shown by a number placed directly after the horse's name (e.g. Kingsbury 34). So, you're looking for the horse with the highest RPR which also has the lowest figure for days since it last ran. This horse is likely to be in peak racing condition.
If two or more races tie because the top RPR horses in each race last ran on the same day, give preference to the race where the Betting Forecast favourite has the highest Best Odds price.
Once you've selected a race, the two horses to bet on in that race are the one with the highest Racing Post Rating AND the one which is the Betting Forecast favourite. If these should be one and the same horse, place your bets on the one with the highest RPR AND on the second-named horse in the Betting Forecast.
Set your stakes according to the Best Odds price for each horse. Convert the odds for both selections to percentages by dividing the right-hand figure in the odds by the sum of both figures, then multiplying by 100.
Add the percentages and subtract from 100. This gives you your profit margin on your bet.
To win £50, or any other amount per race, divide your target profit amount by the profit margin and multiply the result by the percentage odds for each horse. This will give you the required stakes.
Example:
Say your two horses are priced, respectively, at 6/4 (2.5) and 5/2 (3.5) and your target profit amount is £50…
Therefore:
4/(6 + 4) = 0.4 *100 = 40%
2/(5 + 2) = 0.2857 * 100 = 28.57%
40% + 28.57% = 68.57%
100% - 68.57% = 31.43% profit margin on your bet
(£50 / 31.43%) * 40% = £63.63 stake on horse 1
(£50 / 31.43%) * 28.57% = £45.45 stake on horse 2
Total Stake = £109.08
Whichever of the two horses wins, £159.08 is returned to you.
£159.08 - £109.08 total stake = £50 profit, one way or the other.
So, given that attractive situation, is it possible to back even more horses in the same race so that whichever one them wins you could recover your total stake for all of your bets and still make a profit, just like you can for two horses?
Yes, it is… you can cover up to 85% of the horses in a race to give you colossal winning opportunities. And there are occasions - though not often - when you can even cover ALL the runners to give you a 100% guarantee of winning.
But as you increase the number of horses covered, the interdependent calculations become so complex it's just not feasible to carry them out manually in a reliably accurate and time efficient manner.
The solution?
You need specialist software to do the job for you.
Donald Hunting is a recognised authority in spreadsheet development.
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