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Racing Betting Update; Charlie Hall Chase with the bookmakers making Ollie Magern their 3/1 favourit
Added: (Fri Oct 31 2008)
After pointing you the way of 50/1 Cesarewitch winner Carraciola and last weekend's 7/1 Racing Post Trophy winner Crowded House - Andy Newton will be hoping to land the hat-trick in the Charlie Hall Chase this Saturday.
With the cold snap sweeping the country punters could be forgiven for thinking we are in the thick of the National Hunt season, and you can hardly blame them when you see the line-up of jumpers heading to Wetherby to contest the Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase on Saturday.
Mouse Morris' 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, War of Attrition, had been the talk of the race over the last few days, but due to the likely fast ground connections have decided to keep him at home - a decision Wetherby racecourse must be gutted about. He is now set to be on the track again next Thursday in the €20,000 Thurles Chase.
So even if War of Attrition had made the line-up he certainly wouldn't have had it all his own way with the likes of 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State of Play, last year's Royal & SunAlliance winner Albertas Run, Paul Nicholls' promising Turko and two-times winner of this race Ollie Magern in attendance.
If we look at State of Play first - this one-time promising chaser looked to have the world at his hoofs when landing the 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, but after being well-touted for the Cheltenham Gold Cup that same season, he could only manage a poor seventh behind Kauto Star. He did, however, manage to show he's no back number just yet in this race 12 months ago, when finishing a close second to Ollie Magern, and still being only 8 years-old and coming from the in-form Evan Williams team it would be foolish to write him off here.
Albertas Run, from the Jonjo O'Neill stable, was a huge improver last season. He rattled up a string a decent chase wins including the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase at the Festival and although he disappointed at Aintree a few weeks after that he'd had a long season and it was probably just one race too far. He's had a nice break since, so comes here fresh and raring to go, and after winning on his seasonal reappearance for the past two seasons this is a huge plus for the Trevor Hemmings-owned chaser - not to mention the fact he's likely to have a certain AP McCoy on his back!
As we all know the Paul Nicholls stable could hardly have made a better start to the new NH campaign, with winners already flying in left right and centre, and that's why his runner here Turko is feared. Owned by the popular Andy Stewart it's hard to believe this talented grey is still only 6 years-old! He seems to have been around for a lot longer than that, but he's had a staggering eighteen runs in the UK and Ireland since he was brought over from France as a 3 year-old. He's won 33% of those outings (2 hurdles and 4 chase), and although he only got his head in front once last term he ran well in some of the top races. He was pulled-up in this contest 12 months ago, which is a slight concern, but he followed that up with a second in the Irish Hennessy, behind The Listener, a third in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival and then was unlucky to come to grief in the toughest steelechase of them all - the Grand National. Sam Thomas will take the ride this Saturday and with the stable in great form and having also won this race twice in the past decade with See More Business then he's another that should go well.
Finally, of the main contenders Ollie Magern is certainly worth a mention. From the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard this 10 year-old absolutely loves this race, having landed it twice in the past three seasons, and with the stable landing the big chase at Aintree last Sunday with Knowhere the team are clearly in great heart. He'll have top-weight to lump round here, which is more than he's had to carry before, but he's a horse that seems to be at his best in the early part of the season and has infact won four of his last five seasonal reappearances.
So, that's the main runners, but lets finally have a quick look at the trends and see if any of those highlighted have any strong positives or negatives. Most of those mentioned will be around 6/1 or less in the betting, so with 8/10 previous winners returning around those odds this doesn't really tell us much. If we look at the age of past winners though we can get a view - 8/10 winners were aged between 8-10 years-old which is a huge negative for Turko (6), Albertas Run (7) and two others not yet mentioned – Monkerhostin (11) and Madison du Berlais (7), but a positive for Peter Bowen's Snoopy Loopy (10) and last year's winner Ollie Magern (10).
7/10 winners won this on their seasonal reappearance, which is good news for followers of Turko, Albertas Run and Ollie Magern who all get their season's underway here, but a slight negative for last weekend's Roan Chase third Snoopy Loopy
Previous winners have a great record with See More Business and Ollie Magern two horses in the last decade to return to Wetherby and win this race for a second time. This therefore bodes well for Nigel Twiston-Davies' runner, Ollie Magern, as he bids to land three Charlie Hall Chases.
It's worth a very small mention that northern trainer Howard Johnson has won this race twice in the last 10 years and although he looks up against it here the fact he's had three entered clearly indicates its a race he loves to win. With his trio, Canada Street, Top Dressing and Hard Act To Follow, all around the 66/1 mark it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world to see one of them run into a place in a race where a few of the fancied ones may well get pulled up, if having an 'off day', with one eye on the rest of the season.
Finally, the only other runner that's caught the eye is great named Snoopy Loopy. From the ever-improving Peter Bowen yard I think they could be a stable to follow this season as they seem to have more and more top horses to go to war with in the better races and this could just be one of them. This 10 year-old comes here arguably the fittest of the bunch having been on the go all summer. He's only been out of the frame once in his last 10 runs, when being brought down at Uttoexter in June, and after a close-up third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last Sunday that brings him right into the reckoning. With age, form, trip and RPR rating all in his favour he is certainly worth an each-way punt in a race some of the bigger names might just need before going onto better things.
Recommended Bets - 3pts win – Ollie Magern
Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w – Snoopy Loopy
Recommended Bets - 1/4pt e/w – Canada Street
Recommended Bets - 1/4pt e/w – Top Dressing
Recommended Bets - 1/4pt e/w – Hard Act To Follow
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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