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Premier League Betting Update; Wigan v Chelsea with the bookmakers making Chelsea their 4/9 favourit
Added: (Thu Aug 21 2008)
Chelsea have been cut to title favourites across the board after their impressive 4-0 win over Portsmouth and now the Scolari bandwagon rolls into the JJB Stadium on Sunday.
They face a Wigan Athletic side that will provide the kind of ‘English’ test of strength the likes Deco & Big Phil will have never seen before.
The Blues are now trading at a low of 2.2 on Betfair (in from 2.5 pre-season) but this is exactly the kind of examination the Londoners must pass if they are to stay the darling of the press.
In recent seasons, they have managed to achieve this with a brutal consistency. Chelsea have won all 3 of their Premiership visits to the JJB, scoring 6 times and conceding just 2 in the process. In fact, the Blues were comfortably the best away side in the division last term, with just 3 defeats in 19 and only 13 goals shipped (also making them the tightest defence on the road).
All 3 of these defeats came against top 6 sides and the visitors are usually rock solid against teams in the bottom half of the table, such as Wigan. They won 8 of 10 of these away games last season with just 7 goals conceded against the lower half clubs.
But Steve Bruce has turned Wigan into a genuine ‘hard to beat’ side; they were 12th in the home league table last term and won 8 of their 19 games at the JJB to stay afloat (72.5% of their points last term came at home). They also boasted the 6th best home defence in the league with just 17 goals shipped in 19 games; a remarkable achievement for relegation strugglers.
However, throughout their brief Premiership career Wigan have been plagued by an inability to take points off the big four. Last season was no exception, with 1 draw & 3 defeats at home, failing to score a single goal in the process.
This is part of the reason why good value should be under 2.5 goals. The bookies may have fractionally over-reacted to Chelsea’s 4-0 drubbing of Pompey as history would suggest this fixture won’t see much action. In Wigan’s 4 home games against the big four last season, a grand total of 5 goals were scored (all by the away side). And the Latics may have had one of the best home defences last season but they also had the 3rd worst attack: just 21 goals scored in 19 games. In fact, that makes a total of 1.99 average goals per game scored at the JJB last season: the lowest in the league.
And you don’t usually see too many away drubbings by Chelsea. They averaged 2.2 away goals per game last season, and as we said they had the leanest defence with just 13 conceded. The absence of Didier Drogba will dent their goal scoring powers and the JJB is not a place for cricket scores: just get in, take the 3 points and get out was the philosophy of Mourinho & Grant. As a result, the 4/5 on the unders looks reasonable & is worth taking.
Recommended Bets - Under 2.5 Goals, 81/100 Canbet
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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