Premier League Betting Update; Stoke v Liverpool with the bookmakers making Liverpool their 4/9 favo

Added: (Thu Jan 08 2009)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Stoke City entertain Premier League leaders Liverpool here and then go to Stamford Bridge next weekend so the BP 4/9 on them to be relegated could get even shorter unless Tony Pulis can pull off an improbable result in one of these games.

The Potters can be backed at a whopping 9/1 to record a first win in 6 league games on Saturday and home advantage would seem to be essential for them to gain positive results at present. All 5 of their Premier League wins have come in the West Midlands (and lie 6th in a home league table), including victories over 2 of the top six, Aston Villa (3-2) & Arsenal (2-1). However, no wins in their last 3 at the Britannia is the key reason why they have slipped into the bottom three and are 19th in the form guide after 3 successive defeats. Combine this with Ricardo Fuller’s suspension for slapping his own Captain and an FA Cup reverse at League One Hartlepool last time out and their enormous price here does start to seem justified.

Especially with Liverpool in such red hot form – Rafael Benitez’s side are 4/9 to record their 8th away win of the season and are currently on a 9 game unbeaten run, bolstered emphatically by a stunning 5-1 demolition of Newcastle last time out in the league. With Fernando Torres making a goal-scoring return in the FA Cup last weekend the Reds look in tip-top condition, though the possible absence of Xabi Alonso is a major blow – he has been outstanding in the heart of the midfield away from home this season. The Reds have won 5 of their 6 away games against sides outside the top six so this is the sort of game they have been winning with regularity so far, a worrying omen for Tony Pulis.

Overall, it is very difficult to support Stoke here – yes they have beaten 2 of the top six at home but they also lost to 2nd place Chelsea (0-2) & 3rd place Manchester United (0-1), the two sides who best match Liverpool in terms of ability. Furthermore, the Aston Villa win came just 2 games into the season while Arsenal were a sort of special case in that they were physically out-muscled – a trait that Jamie Carragher and co are unlikely to suffer. However, backing the visitors at 4/9 isn’t going to make you too much money, though given their 5/6 away win record at teams outside the top six and current superb form I still wouldn’t begrudge anyone a wager there.

However, the better value may lie in under 2.5 goals, which you can get at Evens. The last 4 consecutive Stoke home games (and 6 of the last 8) have seen 2 goals or less, including the fixtures against Chelsea & United. Just 2 home goals in their last 4 goes a long way to explaining this – only 2 sides have scored fewer than Stoke’s 18 goals this term. They have been under 2.5 in 6/10 total home games this season, the same figure (6/10) for Liverpool away games being under, so on the surface Evens is a good price for that outcome here. One worry is that the Reds have only been under 2.5 in 2/6 games against sides in the bottom half, but the possible absence of Alonso, coupled with Stoke’s recent 0-1 home game against a fellow big four side, still makes Evens a solid price in my opinion. Though Benitez’s side should win the game as well, the price on unders makes that the preferable option.

With Fernando Torres returning there is sure to be interest in him finding the back of the net and he can be backed at Evens to score anytime. Given that he had scored in 3 of 4 away games before his injury (and he was subbed after 30 minutes in the other game) this price looks appealing and is sure to get some customers. I wouldn’t complain if you got involved here as well though do remember he hasn’t completed 90 minutes since October so may not be back to full sharpness for this one.

Recommended Bets - 3 pts - Under 2.5 Goals, Evens


• All prices correct at time of writing.

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