F1 Betting Update; Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix with the bookmakers making Massa their 6/4 favouri

Added: (Fri Oct 31 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - It’s been a long and hard season, but Formula One heads to Brazil this weekend for a final race show-down between Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa. It must feel like Deja-vu for Hamilton who found himself seven points clear of Kimi Raikkonen at this stage last season, and now faces the exact same scenario – only this time it is Felipe Massa who shadows the Brit.


Who can forget last season’s finale, where Hamilton experienced first lap troubles that saw Raikkonen snatch the Driver Championship away at the final hurdle, and Hamilton must surely have learnt from that heart-ache. This weekend he needs to keep a clear head, and steer clear of trouble at all costs – a task which may not be made easy by a gaggle of drivers who would be happy to see Lewis pipped to the post.


Massa will obviously be gunning for victory, but Hamilton will also face his wing-man Kimi Raikkonen, while Fernando Alonso has been happy to state his desire to help Massa win the title should the opportunity arise. Such is the feel among the bookmakers that foul play could come into play, Skybet, Blue Sq and Stan James are all offering various markets concerning exactly whom crashes into whom!


So onto the race, and the weather forecast suggest we could be in for another wet weekend – not entirely inappropriate at the end of a season which has seen considerably more rain affected races than I can ever remember their being. Hamilton will certainly be keeping his fingers crossed for damp conditions – his McLaren has been visibly quicker in the wet all season – just think back to his flying pace at Silverstone, the speed with which he reeled in Raikkonen at Spa, or his drive through the field at Monza. There’s no doubt the McLaren performs better in the damp – particularly in the hands of Hamilton, and for that reason I’m going to suggest a small stake on Hamilton snatching pole.


General thinking among the bookmakers has been that Ferrari need Massa at the front – indeed he has rarely won a race from anywhere but Pole – but McLaren may also consider running Hamilton light to get him on Pole and try to steer clear of and dangers in the race. A bit of rain in qualifying could only help that cause, and at 3.15 on the exchanges, Lewis looks a great bet for my money.


As far as the race goes itself, it’s hard to look much past Kimi Raikkonen finishing on the Podium – he knows exactly what is required of him, and Ferrari will pull out all the stops to ensure both men have an equally competitive strategy in their quest to score a race 1-2. Raikkonen can be relied on under pressure, and can deliver to make some repayment to the team who have kept faith in him despite an under-par season from the Finn.


In the Points markets, Sebastien Bourdais looks an enormous price at 9/4 to finish in the points – he was just a whisker away last time out, and the Torro Roso which is ending the season is quite a different car from the one which took to the grid in Australia 8 months ago. It has been transformed from scrapping with Force India and Honda, to a genuinely competitive machine – capable of fighting for Podium’s when circumstances allow. Team-mate Vettel is as short as 2/5 for a points finish, so the 9/4 on Bourdais has to represent a slice of value.


Finally, staying with Bourdais, it could pay to back the Frenchman to reach Q3 – a feat he has managed in 5 of his last 6 races, while under-laying the pace of their car, Vettel has reached final shootout in 8 of his last 9 starts. Even money looks an insult to the engineering which has catapulted the Red Bull sister car up the grid, and should be punished.


Recommended Bets


1pt Lewis Hamilton to qualify on Pole – 3.15 Betfair
2.5pts Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the Podium – 4/5 Will Hill
4pts Sebastian Bourdais to finish in the points – 9/4 General
2pts Sebastian Bourdais to reach Q3 – 1/1 Sporting Odds


• All prices correct at time of writing.

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