Cheltenham Betting Update; World Hurdle Trends
Added: (Wed Mar 05 2008)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Statistics
• 9/9 - Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
• 8/9 - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 7/9 - Trained in the UK
• 7/9 - Returned 11/2 or less
• 2/9 - Won by the fav or jfav
• 2/9 - Won by a previous winner of the race
With the festival this year not looking as if there are many ‘bankers’ this race will certainly figure highly on most people’s list in that respect with the talented Inglis Drever looking, on paper, head and shoulders above his rivals.
Despite looking a ‘shoe-in’ Cheltenham wouldn’t be Cheltenham if there the pre-festival rumour mill didn’t hit overdrive, and that’s exactly what’s been happening with the favourite here. His trainer, Howard Johnson, has not been having the best of times of late, with his runners running well-below par, after a bout of coughing has hit his yard. He’s said that it hasn’t affected Inglis Drever, but until he runs you can never be to sure and that’s why there is some varied views from the bookies on his chances.
Drever landed the race 12 months ago from Mighty Man, and in 2004 from Baracouda and certainly won’t have anything of that calibre to beat come Thursday. If he does land the prize he will surely go into festival folklore as he’ll become the first horse to land this contest three times and despite being aged nine, if on-song, he still looks bomb-proof.
Howard Johnson’s inmate got this season off to a flyer winning the Long Walk, when not meant to be fit, and more recently the Cleeve Hurdle here at Prestbury Park and with his six runs at Cheltenham reading – 221211, then it’s hard to see anything but another World Hurdle success for this tough 9 year-old.
His main threats look to come from Blazing Bailey, My Way De Solzen and Hardy Eustace, but on form one of these will need to step-up in order to trouble a fit Inglis Drever. Blazing Bailey has 5 lengths to find on Cleeve Hurdle form, while although My Way De Solzen took this prize in 2006 he’s not had the best of times of fences. Hardy Eustace has of course won two Champion Hurdles and due to getting a bit long in the tooth he’s been aimed here rather than the 2 mile event, but after trying this trip earlier in the season I’m not sure if he’s got the class to trouble the best over this longer distance.
Looking at the trends Inglis Drever’s age (9 years-old) is massively against him as all of the last nine winners have been 6,7 or 8 years-old, while the other key trend stating that 8/9 recent winners finished either first or second in their previous race doesn’t really tell us much with all the main contenders fitting that stat.
Previous winners have had a good run of late with both Baracouda and Inglis Drever coming back to win second World Hurdles, while with 7/9 past winners being trained in the UK and returning at 11/2 or less this is a huge positive for the market leader Inglis Drever.
In summary, all punters that are have earmarked this as their banker race, in the form of Inglis Drever, will be sweating a bit on the form of the Johnson horses in earlier races at the festival but if a few of them go close, or even win a race, expect to see Drever’s price shorten in what could be a contest the jolly only has to turn up to win. While if he takes his chance the tough front-runner Lough Derg, who's been improving all season, and saw off My Way De Solzen last time out could run into a place at a big looking 20/1.
Recommended Bets - 4pts win - Inglis Drever
Recommended Bets - ½ pt e/w – Lough Derg
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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