Cheltenham Betting Update; Champion Hurdle Trends
Added: (Wed Mar 05 2008)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Statistics
• 9/9 - Aged between 6-9 years-old
• 8/9 - Won their previous race
• 7/9 - Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
• 7/9 - Trained in Ireland
• 7/9 - Had a RRP of 170+
• 4/9 - Won by the fav or jfav
• 4/9 - Won at Leopardstown last time out
• 3/9 - Won by a previous winner of the race
The Irish challenge still looks strong despite connections of Hardy Eustace opting to go for the World Hurdle instead, and after the way Sizing Europe quickened past him in the AIG last month who can blame them – even at his beloved Cheltenham.
That leaves Sizing Europe, last years ‘champ’ Sublimity and the talented but enigmatic Harchibald the main contenders to fly the flag for the Emerald Isle, and with those three being in the first four in the betting it’s hard to see the prize not going to Ireland for a fifth consecutive year.
The two horses that will be trying to spoil the party for the visitors will be David Pipe’s Osana and last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Katchit. The former ran second to Sizing Europe in the Greatwood and then demolished a decent field in the Boylesports International here at Prestbury Park, and on that form then this trail-blazer could easily follow in the footsteps of another Pond House winner of this race Make The Stand – who landed the race in 1997.
Alan King’s Katchit has proved well-suited to this Cheltenham track – having won four times and a second in his five runs to date. He’s also yet to finish out of the frame in his last 12 races and although five year-olds and previous Triumph Hurdle winners have a poor record in the race it’s hard not to see him making the frame at worse - and who knows he could even become the first Triumph winner to come back to the festival and win a race since Kribensis did back in 1990.
Looking at the recent trends this is often a contest that throws up past winners of the race, or at least horses that have filled the frame in past seasons. This indicates that experience - not only of the track, but the hustle and bustle of the festival is a key positive to have on your side, which puts strong ticks next to the likes of Sublimity (winner 2007), Harchibald (runner-up 2005) , Katchit (Triumph winner 2007), Afsoun (3rd in 2007Champion Hurdle) and Ebaziyan (Supreme Novices’ winner 2007).
A massive nine of the last nine winners have been aged between 6-9 years-old, and although most of the more fancied runners fall into that bracket Katchit, like I’ve said, and Nicky Henderson’s Punjabi at only 5 years-old have this trend against them.
Next up on the trends is that 8/9 won their festival warm-up race, which rules out last year’s winner Sublimity, who’s only run was a lack-lustre fourth behind Osana here in December. Connections will have brought him on a lot since that effort and this ex-Michael Stoute inmate is sure to leave that run behind him, however, for me I don’t think the Champion he won 12 months ago was the strongest renewal, with a few old pretenders like Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace coming to the end of their careers and with a lot more ‘new kids on the block’ this time around, and based on his run behind the Osana, I certainly don’t make him a 5/1 chance – more like double that price!
As I’ve said, the Irish have had a stranglehold on this race, winning the last five and seven of the last nine, and with another strong hand it looks likely to head their way once more. Looking at the runners trial races - the AIG, that Sizing Europe recently won, has been the route that four of the last nine winners have taken, so again this points towards Sizing Europe’s chances again.
So, in summary the Irish favourite looks to have every chance, with so many things in his favour, but for me his price has gone and although obviously on the upgrade might actually be better over fences in time. Of the English raiders Osana looks their best option, but his front running style could set it up for the quirky Harchibald. We all know Noel Meade’s runner looked all over the winner in 2005, only to get out-battled by Hardy Eustace, with Brave Inca back in third. I’m not sure he’ll come across anything with the battling qualities of that pair and although we did still see his old quirkiness back over Christmas, when Straw Bear got the better of him, I still think there is money to be made by backing him. Here’s why – at around 7/1 he could have the race set up for him by Osana and one things for sure if he jumps round he’s bound to be travelling like a dream at some point and by doing that means there will be plenty of takers in the in-running betting. All you have to do is decide what price you want to lay him off at in-running. It’s best not to get too greedy and I’d say if you get around 7/1 then he’s bound to trade around 4/1, at some point, and with that 3pt swing you should be able to trade yourself a nice profit.
Of the rest Afsoun could sneak a place at a big price, especially after his third last year. He certainly gets further than this so will be running on at the death when others have cried enough, while although the age and Triumph Hurdle stats are against him I think that Katchit at around 9/1 looks a cracking each-way bet – let’s not forget he’s never finished out of the first two here at Prestbury Park in five races!
Recommended bets - 3pts – Harchibald win (with the view to trading out in-running)
Recommended Bets - 1pt e/w – Katchit
Recommended Bets - 1/4pt e/w – Afsoun
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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