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Champions League Betting Update; Man Utd v Barcelona with the bookmakers making Man Utd their Evs fa
Added: (Tue Apr 29 2008)
Manchester United and Barcelona start over at Old Trafford on Tuesday with a place in the final the reward for the victor.
It’s hard to say who the 0-0 first leg draw in Spain favoured. It gives United the knowledge that a home win would see them through, but Barca know that just a single away goal would mean the hosts having to score twice.
Either way, Tuesday night will bring to an end some of the most impressive Champions League records going and on balance, this tie looks as evenly poised as can be.
Sir Alex Ferguson’s men have won their last 11 consecutive European home fixtures, which is a Champions League record. Obviously this means they are unbeaten at home this season, with 5 wins out of five, 9 goals scored and just 1 conceded.
Fergie has said his side will be more aggressive in the return leg and traditionally it is at home where United kill off the 2 legged fixtures. Their record in their last 5 European knockout games at Old Trafford reads: P5, W5, D0, L0, F13, A3. Impressive to say the least, and when you consider that they have only won 2 of those 5 corresponding away fixtures you can see that United’s tactics in Spain were by no means a one-off.
However, for all their defensive frailties domestically, Barcelona are equally impressive on the road in Europe. The Catalans are unbeaten away from the Nou Camp this season, winning 3 of 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4 in the process. But where United look to kill off teams on their own turf, Barca actually have a better away record in their recent two-legged matches. They are unbeaten away in the knockout stages since Chelsea turned them over at Stamford Bridge during their last 16 clash in 2004. Rijkkard’s side have won 4 of their last 5 away knockout games, scoring 6 and shipping just 2 goals in that time.
Both sides are unbeaten anywhere in this seasons CL and both have scored 18 and conceded just 5 each. In short, this one could go down to the wire.
I tipped the draw for the first leg and the 23/10 going for a stalemate this time is appealing. However, this is squeaky bum time and backing the draw is dangerous considering only Barca would benefit from anything above a 0-0. Neither side will be playing for extra time and so the match odds are best swerved for this one.
So where to profit? Well, there’s sure to be a lot of punters going on over 2.5 goals given the attacking talent on show but it may pay to go against the grain and get on the unders at 17/20. Behind the offensive panache, these are actually two of the tightest defences in recent CL history.
They have conceded just 10 goals in 22 games between them this season (5 each); United have let in just 1 at Old Trafford and Barca only 4 on the road. The hosts haven’t conceded in their last 4 European games, the visitors haven’t in their last 3. And looking at the recent 2-legged form, United have let in just 3 in their last 5 home knockout games, with Barca conceding just 2 in their previous 5 away.
Finally, looking at both sides’ games since the group stages this season, a combined 9 of their 10 games have seen less than 2.5 goals. As a result, the unders is the selction.
Under 2.5 Goals, 17/20 Bet365
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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