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Champions League Betting Update; Chelsea v Liverpool with the bookmakers making Chelsea their 13/10
Added: (Tue Apr 29 2008)
For once its Chelsea who host the second leg of a Champions League semi-final and that could make all the difference come Wednesday.
A last minute John Aarne Riise own-goal gifted Avram Grant’s side the initiative at Anfield and with the score at 1-1, Liverpool will have to score in London to have any chance of going through.
However, this is something the Reds have had trouble doing in recent years: in fact, Liverpool have not score a single goal at the Bridge under Rafael Benitez.
Since Roman Abramovich took charge in 2003, Liverpool have won just one game at Chelsea (back in 2004), and since then haven’t found the net in their last 8.
The full record reads: P9, W1, D3, L5, F1, A7.
The visitors traditionally get their European jobs done on Merseyside and in fact have never had to go away from home without a lead previously under Benitez.
Their away record in Europe since their UEFA Cup campaign of 2003/04 is not great: of 21 games, they’ve won just 9, drawing 6 and losing 6. In that time they have scored just 23 goals, shipping 14 in the process.
This trend continues when you look at their away record in two-legged European ties: 9 played since 2004 but just 4 wins, with 3 draws and 2 defeats. Again, just 10 goals scored in that time, with 5 conceded.
So this is a side who haven’t scored at Stamford Bridge for 4 years, have made 2 European finals since yet only average just over a goal a game away in the Champions League. Given these statistics, it becomes evident just how crucial that 95th minute moment of madness by Riise may be.
And they face a side with the best home record in club football. As well as being undefeated at home in the Premiership for 4 calendar years, Chelsea have lost just 2 of 27 home European games since Abramovich took charge. In those 27 fixtures they have let in just 14 goals.
In the two-legged format, the Blues have lost just 1 in 12 at the Bridge since ’03: and that was to the eventual champions Barcelona. With just 5 goals conceded all season in the CL, Chelsea have every reason to be confident of a place in the final come Wednesday night.
The only crumb of comfort for Liverpool fans is that the hosts must face Manchester United on Saturday lunch-time in a potential title showdown, while Benitez can rotate again at Birmingham. But don’t forget the likes of Carvalho, Drogba and Lampard had a 9 day break from the Fenerbache game on April 8th to the Everton fixture last Thursday.
They should be fresh enough to see off a team who lack bite away from fortress Anfield.
Lay Liverpool to qualify, 2.78 Betfair
www.easyodds.com