Betting Update; Wigan v Arsenal with the bookmakers making Arsenal their 8/13 favourites

Added: (Thu Mar 06 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Wigan ended one of the most unwanted records in football when they earned a goalless draw at Anfield on January 2.

It was the first point the Latics had picked up home or away in 21 attempts against Big Four sides since their promotion to the Premier League in 2005. Does that creditable draw mean Wigan have finally turned the corner against the cream of English football? Probably not. While they played well against Rafa Benitez’s Reds, it’s worth remembering that Liverpool were in the early stages of a run of six games without victory against Premier League opponents. Some would argue that at the time the game was played - and since - Liverpool were barely worth of Big Four status anyway.

In 10 fixtures against Big Four opponents at the JJB Stadium Wigan have been particularly prone to conceding goals, leaking an average of 2.1 per game. Their overall home record has improved this season – Wigan are W6-D2-L5 in all games – but their particular record against the best the Premier League has to offer means it is difficult to take the outcomes of their games against other visitors too seriously.

Arsenal have won seven of 13 away games this season, drawing five and losing only once (2-1 at Middlesbrough). Yet we have noted a slight downturn in their results against bottom-half teams this season compared to the last two campaigns in which they finished the season with a tally of more than 80 points. In their ‘Invincibles’ 2003-04 championship-winning campaign the Gunners’ record against the top flight’s bottom 10 sides was W6-D4-L0 and they improved their points-per-game tally against those teams the following season despite finishing 12pts behind Chelsea, going W7-D2-L1. To equal that record Arsenal will have to win their remaining four fixtures against bottom-half sides, although such a clean sweep is not out of the question given the football they are playing at the moment.

So an away win looks likely – but is there a more profitable alternative to simply backing Arsene Wenger’s side at 8/13 to take all three points? The Asian handicap is an option. In 26 games against bottom-half sides in seasons 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2007-08 Arsenal have achieved a winning margin of two goals or more – in other words, overcome a -1.5-goal start – 12 times. That tally includes 3/3 wins this season – v Spurs (3-1), Reading (3-1) and Fulham (3-0). The -1.5-goal handicap option is therefore tempting at 31/20, but Wigan’s resilience in these matches – six of their 10 home defeats v Big Four sides have come by a single goal – coupled with their general improvement under Steve Bruce means we would urge caution and recommend Arsenal with a -1.25-goal start at 127/100 instead.

Over 2.5 goals should be considered. Five of Wigan’s 10 home clashes against Big Four sides, and 14/26 of Arsenal’s matches against bottom-half hosts have had over 2.5 goals, suggesting the price should be evens or possibly shorter. For that reason 11/10 looks worth taking, so you may like an interest.

It is difficult to ignore Emmanuel Adebayor in the scorers market (he is 4/1 to be first or last goalscorer and 13/10 to score anytime) but for a longer price look at Theo Walcott. The 18-year-old’s confidence could not be higher following his impressive contribution as a substitute in Arsenal’s stunning 2-0 win over Milan in the San Siro on Wednesday night and two games ago in the Premier League he scored a brace against Birmingham City – his first league goals for Arsenal. If he starts he may be worth a small interest at 11/4 to score anytime because if he continues to progress at his current rate those prices on him finding the net won’t be around much longer.

Recommended bets:
1.5pts Arsenal -1.25-goal start on the Asian handicap 127/100
1.5pts Over 2.5 goals 11/10
1pt Walcott to score anytime 11/4

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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