Betting Update; Southampton v Man Utd with the bookmakers making Man Utd their 3/10 favourites

Added: (Tue Dec 30 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - It’s hard to find any reason to oppose Manchester United progressing smoothly to the FA Cup 4th Round at St Mary’s on Sunday.

The English, European & World Champions are a BP 3/10 to win their first FA Cup game against a non-Premiership side for almost 2 years and the current dire straits of Southampton make that price seem entirely justified.

The Saints are now a BP Evens (8/11 in a place) to be relegated from the Championship after a winless run of 8 games and last weekend saw them slip into the bottom three with the worst goal difference in the division (-18). A 1-1 draw with 2nd place Reading last time out was a significant improvement by Jan Poortvliet’s side but that broke a run of 4 consecutive defeats, failing to score in 3 of them. And their home record is nothing short of abysmal: just 1 win in 13 on the south coast (against 20th place Norwich) is the key to their poor league position, with only Doncaster Rovers scoring fewer home goals than the Saints’ 9 to date (the full home record reads: P13 W1 D6 L6 F9 A16).

And while United’s fixture list is beginning to severely congest (averaging a game every 3 days since Christmas), Sir Alex Ferguson’s charges have the squad size to rotate players and still put out a side more than capable of winning. Old-timers Gary Neville, Ryan Giggs & the majestic Paul Scholes didn’t start the last game against Middlesbrough and could all feature, while Carlos Tevez should also be in line for a recall. The Reds also seem to have unearthed another gem in young Johnny Evans, the Northern Irishman proving an effective replacement for the crocked Rio Ferdinand. The Champions are in fantastic form to boot, being unbeaten in their last 13 games in all competitions and have kept clean sheets in their last 7 consecutive league games: they are now just 3 away from equalling Chelsea’s all-time top-flight record.

With United’s likeliness to win the game coupled with Southampton’s atrocious home scoring record , we feel United to win to nil at 5/6 is the best selection here. This is around the price you would normally get on Ronaldo and co to win away at poor Premiership sides and given the Saints haven’t even proved themselves of Championship quality so far this season, the price is value. Assessing the Reds against lower-league opposition is nigh-on impossible, as they have played Premiership sides in their last 11 consecutive FA Cup games (excluding replays), but regardless of that Ferguson’s XI should show more than enough professionalism to get the job done. With massive games coming up against Barnsley (16th), Doncaster (22nd) & Norwich (20th), you couldn’t blame the hosts if they had one eye on future league battles and the result of this game is certainly not going to affect the most important objective of Southampton this season, survival.

The goal scorer markets are unsurprisingly dominated by the away side, with no fewer than 7 United players 2/1 or under: including the likes of Manucho & Danny Welbeck, who have just 2 first-team appearances between them this season. Investing in most of these seems folly as it is unknown who Ferguson will start with but anyone keen for a speculative punt could do worse than Paul Scholes at 7/2. The ginger genius could well come in for Michael Carrick, as the two have rotated games since Boxing Day and the latter completed 90 minutes against Middlesbrough last time out. He should find plenty of space in the middle of the park and given his flawless form since his return from injury, he could be due a goal here.

Recommended Bets - 3 pts - Manchester United To Win To Nil, 5/6

Recommended Bets - 1/2 pt - Paul Scholes To Score Anytime, 7/2

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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