Betting Update; Portsmouth v Cardiff with the bookmakers making Portsmouth their 4/5 favourites

Added: (Wed May 14 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Portsmouth and Cardiff play out the first FA Cup Final since 1991 not to feature one of the ‘big four’ superpowers of English football on Saturday.

For both sides this fixture has been at the top of the agenda ever since the semi-finals were played out on the weekend of the 5/6th of April.

In Portsmouth's case, the wonderful achievement of a first FA Cup Final since 1939 has arguably stopped them qualifying for Europe automatically via the league. When they had beaten West Brom 1-0 in the semi-finals Pompey were in 6th on 53 points and just 4 points off Everton in fifth. But a disastrous run, including losing their last four on the trot, saw them collect just four more points in their last six games to labour over the finish line in 8th.

Their form since the semi-final reads: P6, W1, D1, L4, F2, A7.

However, much of this can be dismissed as the collective Portsmouth mindset shifted to Wembley; it is safe to assume Harry Redknapp will have his side back at their best for the FA showpiece. And the seasiders’ form in this competition has been efficient in the extreme this term. 4 of their 5 FA Cup matches (against Ipswich, Preston, Man Utd and West Brom) have ended in 1-0 wins and the 4th round 2-1 win over Plymouth was the only occasion they conceded a goal. And perhaps crucially, 3 of these games were away from Fratton Park, including trips to two of the most formidable home grounds of the English season, Portman Road and Old Trafford. The defensive solidity of the side in the FA Cup is no one off; James, Campbell and co. let in just 40 league goals, the 5th best record in the division.

The away form of Pompey in the league is another positive for the south coast fans heading to Wembley. Only the top five conceded fewer away goals and of their 9 defeats on the road, 5 were against the top five with two coming after a cup final place was assured.

Their opponents have arguably been dreaming of Wembley for longer, having practically assured themselves of mid-table mediocrity by the time they beat Barnsley 1-0 in the semis.

Cardiff have managed to maintain better league form than their Premiership counterparts, only losing 2 of their 6 post-semi games and notching 12 times in the process.

And Dave Jones can call on some big names with bags of top flight experience with the likes of Peter Enckelman, Stephen McPhail, Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink and Robbie Fowler. Aaron Ramsey, who is reportedly being chased by several of English football’s heavyweights, could also be an x-factor.

However, considering this is a game at Wembley against a good top-flight outfit, the Bluebirds’ away form is a massive concern. They only won 4 away league games all season, with the last of those being in December. Moreover, every victory on the road came against a side who finished 14th or lower in the division.

The full away record reads: P23, W4, D12, L7, F28, A34.

There hasn’t been a major shock in the FA Cup Final since Wimbledon in 1988 and despite their recent troubles, Portsmouth look too strong for the Championship outfit.

A good way to profit could be backing Portsmouth to win by one goal. Every Pompey FA Cup win this season has been by just the one goal and given the tense nature of a cup final, it would be surprising to see the favourites cut loose.

Moreover, 7 of the last 17 FA Cup Finals have ended in one goal victories.

The other selection is Portsmouth to win 1-0. After all, this has been the score-line in 4 of their 5 cup games and with a miserly defence, the Premiership side can produce a performance and result akin to the one which saw them beat West Brom 1-0 in the previous round. And don’t forget that 5 of the last 17 cup finals since 1991 have ended 1-0.

Recommended Bets - Portsmouth to win by one goal, 13/5 BoyleSports

Recommended Bets - Portsmouth to win 1-0, 6/1 General

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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