Betting Update; Portsmouth v AC Milan with the bookmakers making AC Milan their 13/10 favourites

Added: (Thu Nov 27 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - This is what Portsmouth have been building towards since the Milan Mandaric days as they entertain AC Milan in what is sure to be an enthralling encounter at Fratton Park.

The home fans are sure to make this a memorable atmosphere but looking past all the euphoria on the south coast Pompey actually really need a result here or their European adventure could be over before it has started.

An opening round 0-3 defeat at Portuguese mid-table side Braga has instantly piled the pressure on for Tony Adams’ side and another setback here means they could need to win both of their remaining games to have any chance of qualification.

Just 1 win in their last 5 is not the sort of form that inspires confidence in the hosts at 23/10, especially considering their 3 most important players (Sol Campbell, Lassana Diarra & Jermain Defoe) are all going to miss the tie. And when Adams talks of the Premiership being the outstanding priority on the eve of the biggest game in the club’s history and you start to wonder whether the new boss has fully grasped the importance of European football to the home faithful.

Last season you would have fancied the hosts to turn over Milan but Carlo Ancelotti’s side have turned things around considerably this term and come here in a rich vein of form. Opening group stage wins over Heerenveen (3-1) & Braga (1-0) mean that they need just one point to assure their passage to the last 32, although only once has their current tally of six points not been enough to progress. Despite a 2-2 draw at Torino last weekend losing them ground in Serie A, they still lie 2nd and are on an unbeaten run of 15 games in all competitions – furthermore, the rock solid defence has conceded just 5 goals in their last 12 fixtures. Big guns Ronaldinho & Kaka could well be rested but given Milan have not lost in their last 5 European games and they have won all 4 of their UEFA Cup games to date, a price of 13/10 is justifiable.

Clarence Seedorf said the departure of Harry Redknapp could play into Milan’s hands and he is almost certainly correct: Adams’ record at the helm currently reads P5 W1 D2 L2 F5 A6 and a home defeat by Wigan (1-2) followed by a 2-2 draw with Hull means Fratton Park is in danger of losing it’s old ‘fortress’ status. However, the defence is still relatively steady and we feel that under 1.5 goals at 39/20 is worth getting on here. We mentioned the outstanding Milan defence before, who are keeping clean sheets for fun at present (8 in their last 12 games), and with a number of key attacking players likely to either not complete 90 minutes or not play at all the unders is instantly appealing. Also take into account the fact that Milan have essentially already qualified and this competition isn’t top of Adams’ list of priorities, which would lend further evidence to a low scoring fixture. Usually this would also be a good spot to lay the hosts but the context of the fixture coupled with the possible ‘12th man’ of the Fratton Park crowd makes this too risky so we would advise sticking with the unders (under 2.5 is short enough at 7/10 so its worth taking the increased risk associated with the under 1.5 in return for a better value price).

Recommended Bets - 3 pts - Under 1.5 Goals, 39/20

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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