Betting Update; Newcastle v Middlesbrough with the bookmakers making Newcastle their 1/1 favourite

Added: (Fri Feb 01 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Three games, two defeats, no goals – Kevin Keegan’s record in charge of the Magpies so far is not exactly what the Toon Army had in mind when they welcomed back the “Geordie Messiah”. Tabloid reports of players left distinctly underwhelmed by Keegan’s tactical instructions may be embellished, but there’s no doubt that the first three matches of his second spell in charge have underlined what an enormous task he has on his hands to turn around a juggernaut of a club that has been heading in the wrong direction for years.

The visit of north-east rivals Middlesbrough offers some succour if Keegan looks back in the history books. Newcastle have an excellent record home and away in the Tyne-Tees derby, going W6-D4-L1 at home and W6-D4-L2 away in the Premier League. That 52% win rate will be a source of happy memories for longer-serving players such as Shay Given and Shola Ameobi, who will doubtless inform more recent arrivals like Claudio Cacapa and Mark Viduka of Newcastle’s superiority.

Keegan’s concern before this match, though, will be getting service to Michael Owen. The England striker still has the ability to score in the Premier League, but he has always been reliant on others’ ingenuity and that’s one quality Newcastle has lacked in recent weeks. Without service the Ł17 million front man will struggle to manage half a dozen goals this season (he currently has two), let alone reach double figures.

Newcastle’s task will hardly be made easier by the fact that Middlesbrough may arrive at St James’ Park looking for a point. Gareth Southgate has been pragmatic during his time in charge at the Riverside Stadium so far, and may calculate that a point away to a side higher in the Premier League constitutes a good result in their battle to avoid the drop. Yet the motivation for Middlesbrough’s erratic strikers to score could not be higher – at the time of writing Boro are looking to conclude a deal for the Ł10m-rated Afonso Alves, and whether the deal for the 26-year-old Heerenveen striker goes through or not, the fact that Boro are willing to splash out a huge sum of money on a relatively unproven striker sends out a clear signal to Jeremie Aliadiere, Tuncay Sanli and Mido – start scoring goals or risk seeing your Boro careers curtailed in the summer.

Boro go into this game with a little bit of form, too, as they are unbeaten in five matches. That run includes matches against lower-league opposition (2-1 and 2-0 wins away to Bristol City and Mansfield Town respectively in the FA Cup) but it is their longest unbeaten run of the season and that will have boosted the spirit among the players. Such results contrast starkly with Newcastle’s run of three games without a win under their new boss, and the home crowd is likely to grow frustrated if Newcastle start this match in the same lacklustre fashion they did against Bolton (0-0) in Keegan’s first game at the helm a fortnight ago.

With form favouring the visitors and the pressure of playing at home probably more of a hindrance than a help for Newcastle at the moment, the visitors look overpriced to come away with something.


1pt Middlesbrough +0.25 on the Asian handicap 11/10

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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