Betting Update; Middlesbrough v Man Utd with the bookmakers making Man Utd their 8/15 favourites

Added: (Thu Apr 30 2009)

Pressbox (Press Release) - If there’s one team Gareth Southgate wouldn’t have picked to play at this stage of what’s turning into a nightmarish season for Middlesbrough, it’s Manchester United.

The champions have put their sticky spell behind them – remembering them losing consecutive matches to Liverpool (4-1) and Fulham (2-0)? – to get their title challenge back on track, and even if they’re not playing to their full potential at the moment the chances of them dropping points on Teesside are slim. The visitors are 9/20 (Coral, Jetball) to win at the Riverside Stadium, with Boro a best-priced 17/2 (Skybet) and the draw 10/3 (generally available) – and even at those shorts odds it’s difficult to oppose Sir Alex Ferguson’s team.

United’s excellent performance and 1-0 win over Arsenal in the Champions League semi-final first leg at Old Trafford on Wednesday night was their fifth victory in six games, and the history books show what a great record United have when they travel to Teesside. They have won seven of their last 10 Premier League games there, so the mainstays of their side will have happy memories of recent trips.

If United’s 9/20 price is too short, what are the best betting opportunities? United-United on the half-time/full-time market is available at 6/5 (Paddy Power) and that has to be an option given their current form. United’s defending has been less than perfect in recent weeks – they conceded two against Aston Villa and Spurs (3-2 and 5-2 wins respectively) – but their assured performance on Wednesday suggests they’re becoming more difficult to break down again, even though Rio Ferdinand (injured) will be missing here. United to win to nil is available at a best-priced 11/8 (Skybet), which will attract plenty of punters given that seven of United’s nine away wins this season have been to nil. Some bookies go as short as 10/11 on this particular market, so the 11/8 really is a stand-out price.

But statistically speaking a low-scoring encounter is the best wager of all. Twelve of Boro’s 17 home games and 10 of United’s 13 away games v non-Big Four sides have had under 2.5 goals. Those figures make the best-priced 19/20 (Sportingbet, Bet365) available on under 2.5 goals far too big – so if you’re willing to follow the long-term form stats that’s the wager of the match.

For an even bigger price, consider under 2 goals at 187/100 (Bet365) – you’d win if there are no goals or one goal in the game, and get your stake money back should there be exactly two. Alternatively, consider United to win 1-0 and 2-0, both available at 13/2 (Bwin) – the likelihood of a low-scoring United win makes those the ideal picks.

Boro’s strikers – the excellent Tuncay excepted (he’s 5/1 with Skybet to score anytime) – have made their names for missing chances this season so there’s little appeal in backing the likes of Afonso Alves or Jeremie Aliadiere to hit the target. They’re 4/1 and 11/2 (both Paddy Power) respectively to score anytime, but a better selection would be Marlon King, who’s scored twice in his last five appearances. He’s 9/2 (Paddy Power) to score anytime.

Dimitar Berbatov is the strongest selection of all. The Bulgaria striker was left brooding on the bench for much of that semi-final against Arsenal – and his appetite for a fight was apparent when he finally got on. The lanky, languid front man faces a fight for his place with the biggest games of the season coming up – so he’ll be desperate to impress if he plays against Boro. Wait for team news – and if Berbatov’s in the starting line-up, back him to score anytime at 11/6 (Bwin).


Recommended Bets - 1.5pts Middlesbrough v Man Utd Under 2.5 goals (19/20)

Recommended Bets - 1pt Dimitar Berbatov (Man Utd) to score anytime (11/6)

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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