Betting Update; Middlesbrough v Cardiff with the bookmakers making Middlesbrough their 4/6 favourite

Added: (Thu Mar 06 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Middlesbrough have a reputation for doing well in cup competitions but this is a banana skin of a tie that could see them slip up.

The Teessiders reached the FA Cup final in 1997, the League Cup final in 1997 and 1998, won the League Cup in 2004 and lost to Sevilla in the Uefa Cup final two seasons ago. Few British sides outside the Big Four have as impressive a record over the past decade or so but that won’t help Gareth Southgate’s side as they face Dave Jones’ expensively-assembled but under-achieving visitors.

Boro have a poor home record of W4-D4-L6 in the Premier League this season. Aside from a 2-1 triumph over Arsenal, their victories have come against struggling sides - Birmingham (2-0), Wigan (1-0) and Fulham (1-0). When they win, as those results show, Boro are far from emphatic – their only two victories by more than one goal in 16 league and cup outings this season were that win over Blues and a 2-0 triumph over lowly Northampton Town in the League Cup. Also, Boro needed extra-time to see off Championship visitors Sheffield United (1-0) in the last round and are a hugely unimpressive W1-D3-L0 at home against such teams in the FA Cup since the start of last season.

Boro’s disappointing stats suggest Cardiff might nick something here – and the visitors’ figures on the road are impressive, too. They have lost just five of 18 league games, drawing half of those 18 fixtures this season, which shows how difficult to beat they will be. Cardiff’s form is equally impressive if you look at their games against sides higher in the table in isolation – a record of W2-D5-L3 shows that they can grind out results against better hosts.

Further proof that Cardiff can cause an upset comes from Championship teams’ performances at Premier League venues in the FA Cup this season. Premier League teams have won four times and one game ended in a draw – but Championship visitors have won on no fewer than four occasions top prove that upsets can happen. Sheffield United won 1-0 at Bolton, Coventry hammered Blackburn 4-1, Preston thrashed Derby by the same scoreline and Barnsley pulled off the biggest shock of all when they beat Liverpool 2-1 at Anfield.

So while Boro’s Premier League status may have earned them their 4/6 price, and while Cardiff have failed to live up to expectations this season following their high-profile purchase of Robbie Fowler and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink last summer, there are enough stats to suggest the draw looks overpriced.

Recommended bet:
1.5pts Draw 13/5

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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