Betting Update; Man Utd v Porto with the bookmakers making Man Utd their 2/5 favourites

Added: (Mon Apr 06 2009)

Pressbox (Press Release) - We all know what happened the last time these two sides met, but the prospect of FC Porto manager Jesualdo Ferreira mimicking predecessor Jose Mourinho’s ecstatic dance down the Old Trafford touchline appear somewhere between negligible and non-existent.

The Portuguese side are lucky to be in the quarter-finals at all, having flattered to deceive yet somehow topped Group G ahead of Arsenal and then scraped through on away goals against an Atletico Madrid side who had just sacked their boss and run into a spell of appalling form in their domestic league.

In other words, the cards have fallen beautifully for Porto so far – but this is where they’ll get decked. United may have suffered a mini-slump of their own in the past couple of weeks but they are simply too strong in all areas for the Portuguese champions and I expect them to run out comfortable winners.

When Porto unexpectedly eliminated United at the last-16 stage in 2004 they drew the first leg 1-1 at Old Trafford – but United go into this game on a run of far more formidable form. Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have won 15 and drawn four of their last Champions League proper games on home soil.

The wealth of options available to Ferguson means he’ll be able to rotate his squad to keep his players fresh without compromising quality. United’s players have had a busy schedule recently, with international duties as well as the stresses of their Premier League challenge – but they’re used to that.

Punters who don’t like odds-on shots will be put off by United’s 4/9 price, but I don’t see any outcome other than a home win. Similarly, the 1/4 on United to make the semi-finals will be too short for some, but the tournament holders really are a fantastic bet to get through. On the night, United with a -1-goal (3/5) or 1.5-goal start (29/25) – depending how confident you are they’ll win by two goals – are more appealing options than United simply to win.

But my preferred options on this game are United to win to nil and on the half-time/full-time market. Ferguson knows the value of keeping a clean sheet at home, as they did against Inter in the last round. He will also recall that United’s outstanding home form since the start of last season has been built on defensive obduracy: eight of their last 10 Old Trafford outings in the Champions League have involved a clean sheet. Check prices nearer kick-off as this is certainly worth considering.

United got a goal in each half in the last round against Inter and Fergie will again implore his players to seek an early breakthrough in order to force Porto to emerge from their defensive shells. Roared on by an emphatic Old Trafford crowd, United have poured over opponents with wave after wave of pressure on European nights so often in the past, and this occasion ought to be no different. I fully expect them to take the lead before half-time, which is why United-United on the half-time/full-time market is my main bet on the match. All but one firm have gone odds-on, with some as short as 4/5, so the 11/10 at Paddy Power is great value.


Recommended Bets - 3pts Man Utd/Man Utd Half-time/Full-time (11/10)

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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