Betting Update; Man Utd v Lyon with the bookmakers making Man Utd their 2/5 favourites

Added: (Mon Mar 03 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - So is this Champions League tie all over? It would be a brave punter who opposes Manchester United playing at home with the advantage of a 1-1 draw from the away leg but Lyon’s unexpectedly accomplished performance at Stade de Gerland a fortnight ago means Sir Alex Ferguson’s side may well suffer the occasional scare before taking their place in the quarter-finals.

This Lyon line-up is regarded as weaker than the incarnations that reached the last eight in 2004, 2005 and 2006, but during the first meeting Alain Perrin’s well-organised side played with the authority we really should have expected from a club that has reached the knock-out stages of Europe’s premier competition in each of the last five years. There’s no substitute for pedigree, and “OL”, as they’re known, have plenty of that, not to mention one or two special individuals.

Yet United will have to self-destruct not to go through here. That priceless away goal has earned them odds-on status and deservedly so – partly because United should have too much firepower for the French champions at home because but also because history suggests the Premier league champions are through: all four sides who have drawn 1-1 in the away leg of a last 16 clash during the past five seasons have progressed via the return fixture at home.

The 4/9 price on United to win on the night, though, has little appeal so what’s the best route to profit on this game? Goals, is the answer. Gregory Coupet may be France’s number one goalkeeper but Lyon are much better going forward than handling the pressure of opponents’ onslaughts. The only player among their defenders – in the widest sense of the word – who has the potential to thwart United’s best attacking moves if they play to their potential is Jeremy Toulalan, the tactically astute 24-year-old France international holding midfielder who has reportedly piqued Ferguson’s interest. Toulalan aside, Lyon are vulnerable. The centre-back pairing of Sebastien Squillaci and Jean-Alain Boumsong struggles again nimble opponents while full-backs Francois Clerc and Italy World Cup winner Fabio Grosso are much more effective going forward than defending.

But United got all the warning they needed about Lyon’s attacking potency in the first leg and, with the visitors knowing they need to score at least once to have any chance of progressing in the competition, we predict that the visitors will move forward with even greater intent and urgency in this match. Hatem Ben Arfa, the lavishly talented left winger, may be restored to the starting line-up, while Juninho remains an awesome danger from free-kicks – he’s the best taker in the world. Then there’s Benzema, of course.

United would always back themselves to outscore opponents and may have plenty of opportunities to do so as Lyon will take more and more risk the longer the scoreline sees them heading for elimination. Given the sudden death nature of the match, and the strengths and weaknesses of the team teams, a wager on over 2.5 goals at an odds-against price (2.12) looks worthwhile. A slightly shorter alternative would be both teams to score at 20/19. On the four occasions where a 1-1 draw has occurred in the first leg of a last 16 tie, both teams have scored in three of the return fixtures. We fancy both teams to find the target – but the bigger price on overs gets our backing.

Recommended Bets - 3pts over 2.5 goals 2.12

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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