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Betting Update; Man City v Man Utd with the bookmakers making Man Utd their 10/11 favourites
Added: (Thu Nov 27 2008)
The first half of a truly Super Sunday should be a cracker as two of the highest scoring sides in the division go head to head at Eastlands.
The Manchester Derby hasn’t been a happy fixture for Sir Alex Ferguson in recent years - United have taken just 7 points from a last available 18 against their City rivals – and another defeat here could see the Champions 11 points off the pace by the end of the weekend matches. Conversely, despite their 3-0 win over Arsenal last Saturday, Mark Hughes’ City are still just 3 points above the drop zone and desperately need to start building some momentum to stay anywhere near the European places before they can hit the January sales.
While City have been setting the league alight at times with 29 goals scored in 14 games (only Chelsea have notched more), there are two fundamental problems keeping them out of the higher echelons of the division: consistency & defence. Only once this season have the Sky Blues strung together two league wins in a row and every victory at Eastlands has been followed up with a defeat to date. Furthermore, while the likes of Robinho (8 goals) & Stephen Ireland (6) have been scoring with ease, only 4 sides have conceded more goals than City so far with 22 leaked in just 14 fixtures: the clean sheet over the misfiring Gunners was their first in 5 PL games.
So can they make it two consecutive wins over big four sides here? Some would argue that this is a fantastic time to be playing United, with most of their squad having played 3 games in 3 different countries over the 11 days leading up to the fixture. This travelling has clearly taken its toll, with successive 0-0 draws at Aston Villa & Villarreal meaning that the Devils have won just 1 of their last 4 League & European matches. A 0-1 reverse here last season, in a game they dominated with 60% of possession and twice as many shots on goal, will still linger in the memory; furthermore, defeats at Liverpool & Arsenal (both 1-2) this season has raised doubts over their ability to get results in big away matches such as this. However, while Ferguson’s charges will have had 5 days rest from their game at Villarreal, City’s fixture away at Schalke means they have just 3 days to prepare for the game and Hughes does not have the squad to rotate too many of their big names at present.
Given their inconsistency, the hosts are a BP 100/30 for victory, with United 10/11 and the draw (which City haven’t done at home this season) available at 5/2.
We think the best value for the match may lie in both sides to score at 8/11. On the surface this price appears short, with United having not conceded a goal in their last 4 games in all competitions and they have the 3rd best away defence in the division (6 conceded in 7 games) despite half of these games being at big four sides. But there is no doubt the hosts are likely to concede: last weekend’s goal-less draw with Villa was the first time in 37 league games that United have failed to score and City had shipped 10 in their last 5 games before the Arsenal shut-out. But the Citizens are the 2nd top scorers in the division and only once in the last 6 fixtures have Ferguons’s side managed to keep out a City side who have not always had the attacking riches they are blessed with now. Furthermore, they have scored 6 goals in their 3 games against the other big four this term and are the only side to have found the net against Chelsea at home all season so far. With fatigue likely in both camps, especially towards the end of the game, we would expect both potent attacks to find the net at least once at some stage.
Recommended Bets - 5 pts - Both Teams To Score, 8/11
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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