Betting Update; Man City v Arsenal with the bookmakers making Arsenal their 5/6 favourite

Added: (Fri Feb 01 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Manchester City exceeded expectations during the first half of the season but it would be an almighty surprise to see them match the tally of 1.84 points per game they managed up until Christmas day. Collecting points at a similar rate until the end of 2007-08 would leave them with a total of 70pts, whereas a final figure of 55-60pts is starting to look more likely.

City’s form, both generally and at home, has taken a downturn over the past month. They have won just one of their last seven Premier League fixtures (2-0 at Newcastle United) and were knocked out of the FA Cup – their last chance of winning a trophy – at Sheffield United (2-1) last weekend. After winning nine straight fixtures at Eastlands from the start of the season the Citizens have drawn their last three, against West Ham (1-1), Liverpool (0-0) and Blackburn (2-2). Having built their meteoric rise on outstanding home form during the early months of Sven Goran Eriksson’s tenure, their inability to win on home soil now will have damaged confidence among players and supporters.

City’s problems lie almost entirely up front. During his years in Serie A Eriksson proved a master at building teams who defended solidly in numbers and he’s repeated the trick at City, resulting in them having a goals against column of just eight conceded in 12 games, the joint-second best tally in the top flight. But without a world-class striker, City are unable to nick goals when outplayed, or capitalise when dominant. Rolando Bianchi has returned to Italy, joining Lazio on loan, and Elano and Martin Petrov cannot be relied upon to continue punching above their weight with goals from midfield (nine in 45 between them to date).

All of which means Arsenal look a good bet to win here. They have bounced back from their humiliating 5-1 defeat to Spurs in the Carling Cup semi-final second leg last week with consecutive 3-0 wins over Newcastle United in the FA Cup and Premier League and it appears that there is no lasting damage to team spirit from the on-pitch fall-out between Emmanuel Adebayor and Nicolas Bendtner. Indeed, Adebayor remains the most dangerous target man in the top flight, scoring nine goals in his last seven games and scoring at least once in each of those seven matches.

The head-to-head stats favour the Gunners, too. Manchester City may have won this fixture last season when Joey Barton netted the only goal from the penalty spot, but that was City’s only win in 10 attempts on home soil. The combined statistics at both venues are 15 Arsenal wins, seven draws and one Manchester City win. We expect the north Londoners to add to their tally here.


Recommended Bets - 1pt Arsenal 5/6

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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