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Betting Update; Liverpool v Sunderland with the bookmakers making Liverpool their 3/10 favourite
Added: (Fri Feb 01 2008)
It’s a sign of how far Liverpool have fallen that their 1-0 defeat at West Ham on Wednesday night barely caused raised eyebrows among neutrals and Reds fans alike. Rafael Benitez’s beleaguered side are now 17 points behind Premier League leaders Manchester United and Arsenal. But there’s little point alluding to the top two at the moment because, painful as it may be for Liverpool supporters to admit, the Anfield club’s direct rivals for the remainder of the season are the likes of West Ham, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Everton.
This fixture would have looked a home banker when the schedules were drawn up pre-season, and even more so when Liverpool demolished Derby County 6-0 at Anfield on September 1. But in the five months that have passed since that stunning victory Liverpool have won just three Premier League games on home soil – v Fulham (2-0), Bolton (4-0) and Portsmouth (4-1) – with five ending as draws and one a defeat. Fourteen points from a possible 27 is the main reason why Benitez’s boys have dropped off the pace. Liverpool’s only wins in their last eight outings have come against Luton Town (5-0) and Havant & Waterlooville (5-2) in the FA Cup, which hardly encourages us to side with the hosts at short prices such as 3/10 to win the game or 9/10 with a -1.5-goal start on the Asian handicap.
Yet although Liverpool’s stats inspire little confidence, there are few figures indicating that Sunderland will get something out of the game as the visitors have been charitable on the road since their return to the top flight. The Black Cats have managed to move out of the relegation zone for the time being but their improvement is exclusively thanks to a run of three straight wins at the Stadium of Light. On the road, they have taken just two points from a possible 36 all season and lost their last eight. There may be psychological factors in play here. It would be misleading to suggest that Sunderland manager Roy Keane has written off away games, but he has stated on several occasions that his team’s home form will decide whether they stay up, and subconsciously that may have affected how his players perform on the road. That’s why it would be no surprise to see Liverpool win, although we think their prices are too short.
The best market appears time of first goal. Liverpool will look to start quickly and score early in an attempt to win over the increasingly disgruntled fans who have sat through so many mediocre performances at Anfield this season. The fans fully supported Benitez in his recent spat with club co-owners Tom Hicks and George Gillett but now the antagonism has died down Liverpool fans are free to focus on the team’s performance again, and needs to repay the regulars’ faith in him. Thus expect a strong line-up and a team instructed to start this match in the best possible manner.
The stats also suggest an early goal is likely. In the nine home games in which Liverpool have scored, the first goal has come in the opening 20 minutes six times, with the average time of their first goal 27 minutes. Sunderland have conceded in all 12 away games, with the first goal coming in the opening 20 minutes six times. That means that, in a total of 12 of 21 (57%) matches with goals, the opener has come by the 20th minute, so splitting your stakes across the first goal 0-10 mins and 11-20 mins markets looks a good value route to profit.
Recommended Bets - 1pt Time of first goal 0-10 mins 3/1
Recommended Bets - 1pt Time of first goal 11-20 mins 7/2
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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