Betting Update; Liverpool v Chelsea with the bookmakers making Liverpool their 11/8 favourites

Added: (Mon Apr 06 2009)

Pressbox (Press Release) - So here we go again: will Liverpool & Chelsea serve up their usual Champions League fare?

These two sides have now met in all 5 seasons since Rafael Benitez took the Anfield reigns and so far there are two very strong trends that have emerged. Firstly, goals – or lack of. All 8 Champions League meetings between the sides have covered the under 2.5 goals market, with an incredible 6 of those 8 ending 1-0 or 0-0 (this data includes Chelsea’s 3-2 win in the semi-final 2nd leg last season, which ended 1-1 after 90 minutes). Under 2.5 is obviously incredibly short here (an amazing 4/9 with Stan James) and you will be lucky to get any better than 1/2, while even under 1.5 is a BP 6/4.

The second trend is that the club with the 2nd leg at home has always progressed. This should theoretically favour Chelsea, but I think there are several reasons to believe that laying the Blues to win this Anfield first leg is the way to go here. You should be able to do this at around 3.7-3.8 and their away European record, particularly at Anfield, leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, since the 2004/05 season, Chelsea have won just 1 of 11 away knockout games, and never when the road game has been the 1st leg. Their overall away KO record reads W1 D5 L5, with W0 D3 L2 when the away leg is first. John Terry & co have also never won in 3 KO visits to Merseyside (W0 D1 L2), and they haven’t won at Anfield in any competition since 2005/06.

Though Guus Hiddink has overseen a W8 D1 L1 record since taking over as Chelsea boss, Liverpool are in equally outstanding form, winning their last 5 consecutive games, including scoring 8 in 2 matches against Manchester United & Real Madrid. With messes Gerrard & Torres in scintillating form, they will fancy their chances of taking a 1st leg lead to Stamford Bridge with the roar of the Kop behind them as usual. Not only have Benitez’s charges beaten this opposition home & away in the league already this season, but they have never lost a KO home 1st leg under the Spaniard – W3 D1 L0 is the overall record. In fact, in the Benitez era Liverpool have won 8 of 11 home KO games and as we previously said, they have never lost to Chelsea at Anfield to date.

The price on Liverpool to win the match (11/8 with Paddy Power & Skybet) isn’t bad but laying Chelsea has both the draw and a home win working for you and I think this is a good value selection. Given the form of the Reds, their home European record & form against Chelsea, it’s hard to see the visitors emerging with an outright victory here, regardless of their own good streak under Hiddink. Not that a win is beyond them – but at the exchange prices currently on offer I am happy to oppose them taking a lead away from a European venue where not many sides emerge with anything. Under 2.5 goals for a 9th consecutive match between these two is sure to have plenty of supporters, regardless of the price, and I wouldn’t oppose that bet myself. However, laying the visitors offers the better value.


Recommended Bets - 3pts – Lay Chelsea, 3.7/3.8



• All prices correct at time of writing.

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