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Betting Update; Hull v Aston Villa with the bookmakers making Aston Villa their Evs favourites
Added: (Tue Dec 30 2008)
Hull manager Phil Brown’s very public attempt to dress down his players at half-time at the City of Manchester Stadium on Boxing Day might have engendered a response of sorts from his players after the break – but it came too late to hide the fact that his side’s defending has fallen apart in recent weeks.
The Tigers have conceded 11 goals in their last three outings and it’s more than two months (10 matches) since they kept a clean sheet – but they’re not the only side in this game struggling to defend well. Martin O’Neill’s touchline spat with Arsene Wenger on Boxing Day may have overshadowed all else in Aston Villa’s 2-2 draw with Arsenal, but the most salient point for punters was the ease with which the Gunners twice sliced open the home defence. With Martin Laursen out, Villa’s defence will be vulnerable for some time to come – but they were far from secure when the great Dane was in situ. Villa have conceded 22 goals in 19 games, a defensive record they have managed to mask by playing the sort of football that makes them more likely to win 2-1 or 3-2 than 1-0 or 2-0. That ability to create and grant chances in large quantities is reflected in their ‘overs’ stats – 11 of Villa’s 19 games (and five of nine on the road) have had over 2.5 goals. When you consider that 14 of Hull’s 19 games – and six of their last seven – have had three goals or more as well, over 2.5 goals become the obvious bet. The price of 9/10 looks far too big to me – if you translate the overall season stats for both sides into odds, the price should be around 8/15 and if you look at Hull’s home form and Villa’s away form, the same price applies.
Anybody who saw Hull’s defence part to let Manchester City score five on Boxing Day will be tempted to back an even higher-scoring match – and the stats offer some support for that approach. Fourteen of 38 relevant games (8/19 for Hull, 6/19 for Villa) have had four goals or more – so you’d be right to consider over 3.0 goals at 159/100 or over 3.5 goals at 9/4. The only rider I’d add is that Brown will have drummed into his players the need for them to defend properly since their mauling at Eastlands, so you might see more bite in the tackle. That said, the long-term stats suggest that, no matter how much effort Hull’s players put in, they’re simply not up to the job of shutting out the best top-flight attacks – so I’m comfortable with backing over 2.5/3.0 goals at 29/25.
It’s dangerous to write off Hull’s chances of getting something from the game even though they’re going through a sticky patch, because we’ve already seen them turn over supposedly bigger sides at the KC Stadium. They’ve beaten Fulham (2-1), West Ham (1-0) and Middlesbrough (2-1) – but defeats against Wigan (0-5), Chelsea (0-3), Bolton (0-1) and Sunderland (1-4) underline their inconsistency. Villa are unbeaten in seven Premier League games – four wins, three draws – and it’s difficult to see them getting beaten given the current discrepancy in form between the two sides. The 23/20 on them is too short for me, though, and I won’t be touching Hull at 3/1. The draw is 12/5, but I’ll be ignoring all three and sticking to goals instead.
Few would have backed Zat Knight to grab Villa’s late equaliser against Arsenal – but it’s a sign of how the Midlanders share the goals around that the lanky centre-half got on the mark. He’s 14/1 to do so again, with nine-goal top scorer Gabriel Agbonlahor 7/4 and five-goal Ashley Young 16/5. Gareth Barry, 6/1, has got a taste for goals again after scoring from the spot against the Gunners on Boxing Day, while Hull City fans will want Geovanni to rediscover his spectacular scoring range. He’s 3/1 to find the net.
Recommended Bets - 3pts Over 2.5/3.0 goals 29/25
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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