Betting Update; France v England with the bookmakers making France their 6/4 favourites

Added: (Wed Mar 26 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Rio Ferdinand’s appointment as England captain suggests you should expect the unexpected in Fabio Capello’s era, at least during the early stages, but a typically low-key March friendly would be no surprise here.

There are plenty reasons for the two sets of players – myriad substitutes as well as the starting line-ups – might want to prove themselves to France manager Raymond Domenech and Capello, with France preparing for the Euro 2008 finals and England’s contingent still looking to ingratiate themselves with the new boss. But there are an equal number of reasons why players may want to save themselves. Twelve of England’s 23-man party are still in the Champions League while the same argument applies to so many of France’s players based abroad – Eric Abidal and Lilian Thuram (Barcelona), Gael Clichy, William Gallas and Mathieu Flamini (Arsenal), Patrice Evra and Louis Saha (Manchester United), Philippe Mexes (Roma), Claude Makelele, Florent Malouda and Nicolas Anelka (Chelsea). Franck Ribery’s Bayern Munich are favourites for the Uefa Cup and PSG duo Mickael Landreau and Jerome Rothen play in the French League Cup final on Saturday evening, a vital match for a club threatened by relegation, so many of these players will be in two minds about how much to commit themselves.

It is always risky to predict the outcome of a game when it’s so difficult to predict the starting line-ups, the changes will that will occur (and when) during the match and the players’ motivation levels. But if anything, France have more problems than England here because they’re missing a greater number of regular starters and coach Domenech’s unpredictability in his team selections over the past 12 months means the replacements often have a difficult time when they come in. Right-back Willy Sagnol, captain Patrick Vieira, France’s all-time leading scorer Thierry Henry and the emerging star of French football, Karim Benzema, are all missing here. The likes of Lassana Diarra (Portsmouth) or Francois Clerc (Lyon) at right-back and Jeremy Toulalan (Lyon) in midfield are excellent deputies in midfield but the lack of a familiar pairing up front may cost the French dearly. Djibril Cisse (Marseille) in a national team shirt hasn’t convinced anybody since the 2002 World Cup finals and has made his name as much for missing chances as taking them at club level this season. David Trezeguet (Juventus) received a late call-up and has a proven scoring record at international level but has fallen out of favour with Domenech since missing a penalty in the World Cup final shoot-out 20 months ago so there’s no guarantee he will play. That leaves Anelka – who famously netted both goals in France’s 2-0 win over England at Wembley in February 1999 – as the only proven goalscorer for the hosts.

All of which should play into England’s hands, and means that, for the first time in a decade, England can argue that their starting XI is as strong as France’s. Then there’s the question of revenge, which England might well seek after losing 2-1 the last time these two teams met, in the opening group game of the Euro 2004 finals. On that occasion England led 1-0 thanks to a Frank Lampard header until the 90th minute but a sublime Zinedine Zidane free-kick and then an unstoppable penalty from the same player after David James upended Henry in the box following a suicidal Steven Gerrard backpass earned les Bleus the unlikeliest of victories. Eight of England’s starting line-up that night are in contention to play here so expect them to be fired up.

Going further back, Gareth Barry, David Beckham and Michael Owen were on duty the last time England played in the Stade de France. On that occasion, in September 2000, Owen scored an equaliser five minutes from time to earn England a 1-1 draw in Kevin Keegan’s penultimate match in charge. Henry, Trezeguet and Anelka played for France that night as well, but the English trio who appeared in the game will have absolutely no fears about playing in this great venue, as they know England matched the newly-crowned European champions on that occasion and can do so again. We recommend keeping your stakes low because friendlies are so difficult to predict but laying the injury-hit hosts is the pick.

If you’re looking for a speculative selection in the scorers’ market then Lyon’s Mathieu Bodmer would be the shout should he play. The giant midfielder – he stands 6ft 3in – has sublime technique for a big man, and has been instrumental in Lyon pulling away from the chasing pack in Ligue 1 in recent weeks. He scored two goals in their 4-2 win over closest challengers Bordeaux two-and-a-half weeks ago, the second a stunning volley, and set up two goals in their 4-2 win over PSG last Sunday. It’s 50-50 whether Bodmer will play, but if you see his name on the starting line-up or bench for this international then he’s worth a flutter because even if he starts on the sidelines he is likely to come on as this is his first international call-up and there’d be little point in Domenech selecting him if he’s not going to take a look at him. Bodmer’s height means he poses a threat at set-pieces and if he is able to get forward from midfield then his long-range shooting will pose a threat. He’s the most capable goalscorer of all the central midfielders named in France’s squad so he’s the selection to find the net at an appealing price.

Recommended Bets - 3pts lay France at 2.54
Recommended Bets - 0.5pt Bodmer to score anytime (if selected) at 17/2

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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