Betting Update; Carling Cup with the bookmakers making Chelsea their 6/5 favourites

Added: (Thu Feb 21 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Chelsea for the quadruple anyone? Avram Grant’s side have been cut to 80/1 to collect four trophies after being 175/1 just a couple of weeks ago – and you can bet the price will be slashed further should they lift silverware by beating Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley on Sunday.

The Blues are hunting their third League Cup in four seasons, and that recent record of success will be enough to persuade some punters to back the 6/5 favourites with confidence for some punters. They have lifted the trophy three times in the past decade, beating Middlesbrough 2-0 (aet) in 1998, Liverpool 3-2 (aet) in 2005 and Arsenal 2-1 last year. Tottenham’s only triumph during the last 10 years came when they beat Martin O’Neill’s Leicester City 1-0 in 1999, with Spurs finishing runners-up under Glenn Hoddle when they lost 2-1 to Blackburn Rovers in 2002.

As well as superiority in the competition’s recent history, Chelsea can call upon a superb head-to-head record against their London rivals during the Premier League era. Jubilant Spurs fans celebrated wildly when Tottenham beat Chelsea 2-1 at White Hart Lane in November 2006 because it was their first league win since February 1990. The Premier League stats are compelling for Chelsea backers: 20 wins, 10 draws and that sole defeat makes one of the most one-sided records in the top flight. Indeed, since that isolated defeat two years ago Chelsea have twice beaten Spurs to nil (2-0 and 1-0) so normal service would appear to have resumed.

Another negative for Spurs is they go into the game with two days fewer rest than Chelsea, having faced Slavia Prague in the Uefa Cup on Thursday night. Chelsea may have had an away midweek European tie (at Olympiakos on Tuesday night) but these extra days to prepare for this final may prove crucial, particularly if the game goes into extra-time or to penalties.

Not that penalties is likely, however. Only one of the last 10 finals has featured a shoot-out (Liverpool beat Birmingham 5-4 in 2001) but three have required extra-time to find a winner, including two of those finals featuring Chelsea. Backing the Blues to win in extra-time at 15/2 is tempting on the basis they’ve won by that method twice in three final appearances, but we feel there would be too much guesswork involved.

The major factor in Tottenham’s favour is actually the manner in which they trounced Arsenal in the semi-final. Their 5-1 victory in the second leg, regarded as one of their finest performances in recent seasons, confirmed two things: that Spurs are capable of winning knock-out ties against the finest opposition, and that they can both defend and attack successfully against some of the most accomplished players in the world. With memories of that outstanding second-leg performance still fresh, Spurs’ players will have no inferiority complex here.

Right now it’s Chelsea who look like they may struggle to find that knock-out blow. Under Grant they may rarely lose but they’ve lacked ingenuity in recent weeks. The 0-0 draw in Greece on Tuesday was the latest example of the Blues failing to break down well-organised opponents, coming shortly after their 0-0 home draw v Liverpool in the Premier League revealed similar shortcomings. Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba is a potentially formidable strike partnership but the supply line is less impressive and can be quelled. If Tottenham show the same energy and commitment in midfield as they did against Arsenal in the semi-final second leg there’s no reason why Ramos’ boys cannot prevent Chelsea winning in 90 minutes. We genuinely believe Tottenham have got a chance of pulling off an upset here, but Chelsea cannot be ruled out and we’re wary of the draw, which is why we recommend Tottenham Draw No Bet at a generous price.

Jermaine Jenas is the pick in the scoring markets. All those punters who may have spent years wondering “what exactly does Jenas do?” have had the question answered in recent weeks. Rather than waiting for events to occur around him Jenas has set the agenda for club and country since the turn of the year, producing a series of performances in which he’d added substance and style to stamina. The England international’s ability to get beyond his strikers was never in doubt because he is such a tremendous athlete, but the fact he did so rarely and scored infrequently hinted at a lack of self-belief. But the player who turned 25 this week is finally coming of age and is far better value at 13/2 than someone like Frank Lampard, who’s as short as 11/4. Back Jenas to find the net.


Recommended Bets - 2pts Tottenham draw no bet 13/8
Recommended Bets - 1pt Jenas to score anytime 13/2

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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