Betting Update; CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST UPDATE with the bookmakers making Kauto Star their 6/4 favourit

Added: (Thu Jan 03 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - GOLD CUP - So which camp have you dumped your hard earned money in, the athletic and seemingly better poised jumping zone of Kauto Star or the true smashing heavyweight of a galloper Denman land?

It really is a most intriguing title fight for the staying crown this year and one I think we need to savour because not since the days of Wayward Lad, Bregawn, Little Owl and Silver Buck have we been able to witness such high class staying chasing at championship level with the promise of more to come. The adage that you only realise what you have got when it is gone is so very apt here.

Kauto Star was mightily impressive the way he won the King George, let’s not doubt that fact at all. He jumped and travelled supremely well through the race, as he normally does and pulled away at will.

I think his margin of victory though was exaggerated somewhat by the tactics of Exotic Dancer putting the pace to the race over what is arguably Kauto’s minimum stamina set up nowadays, three miles around a flat, sharp track.

Now I am not belittling his performance, far from it, but it has to be put into some kind of context despite Our Vic arguably running to a career best, certainly on the clock.

On the other side of the coin it seemed that Denman’s success at Leopardstown was somewhat downgraded in comparison by the majority of form pundits in the Lexus.

I feel that was an unfair conclusion to come to especially as he had to make his own pace and I think it is was highly evident that Ruby Walsh didn’t want to give him a very hard race by settling him in front and only letting his partner just cruise along in second gear, only winding up the speed from the third last.

On that ground it was never going to be a severe test of stamina and even though he was in pole position at the front off a slowish pace I think this giant horse did well to pull clear up the long run in.

What was evident from the event was that on his day, The Listener is a superb jumper, readily out pointing Denman at nearly every obstacle down the far side, but by the same token the grey has little or no chance of staying beyond three miles and that Cheltenham may not even be on the agenda again unless we get some give in the ground and if we do not in the feature event of the meeting.

The fact that his best form has always been on a relatively flat track also mitigates against him running at Prestbury Park where he has found it hard getting into a rhythm in the past.

So back to the front two in the betting, for me nothing has been ‘sorted’ yet and the Gold Cup remains up for grabs, but mathematics will surely tell even the most numerically challenged person that finding the possible third placed horse in the big race in March will probably yield a bigger profit than the winner. And of course that comes with the added chance that one of the front two may well run below par giving you two places to aim at.

I am not suggesting Turpin Green will win, far from it after his moody display at Haydock, but I think back on his preferred sound surface and with the blinkers refitted he could land a place yet again at extravagant odds.

So, who do you want to back now, Kauto Star at odds-on, Denman at 7/4 or maybe Turpin Green for at least 10/1 a place? That all depends what you got for your GCSE or like me your ‘O’ levels those many years ago?


• All prices correct at time of writing.

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