Previous
Betting Update; Burnley v Arsenal with the bookmakers making Arsenal their 9/20 favourites
Added: (Fri Jan 04 2008)
Premier League clubs often fears trips to hostile Championship venues – but there should be no such worries for the Gunners here. Burnley lie 12th in The Championship but have the joint-worst home record in the division. They have won only two of 13 games and picked up just 12pts from a possible 39 at Turf Moor. It’s an awful record.
Burnley’s home form has actually got worse as the season has progressed, with five defeats and three draws in their last eight outings. Against sides lower than themselves in the table they are W1-D3-L2, with that sole win, over WBA, coming on the opening day of the season. Suffice it to say that there are no signs that Burnley have the overall quality at home to cause an upset against the Premier League leaders.
But there is some evidence that Burnley may avoid being outclassed. It’s worth noting only one of those five home defeats for Burnley this season has been by more than one goal. Arsenal will be a better calibre of opponent, of course, but Burnley will be up for the game. Secondly, Burnley have faced three Premier League opponents in cup competitions in the past three seasons and lost all three games by only a single goal. Portsmouth won 1-0 at Turf Moor in the League Cup earlier this season, while Burnley were creditable 3-2 losers at Reading in the FA Cup last season and defeated 1-0 at Aston Villa in the League Cup in 2005-06. All in all, they have proved capable of raising their game against top-flight opponents in recent history.
The outcome probably depends how fired up Arsenal are to win in style. There’s no question that the Gunners will be able to do enough to get through to the next round – but will they look to run up a comfortable winning scoreline? As a guide they won 3-0 at Sheffield United in the League Cup in October and 2-0 at West Brom last season, and both victories were with the sort of makeshift (if that’s the word for Arsenal’s reserves) side that Arsene Wenger is likely to field in this match.
So we have in Burnley a side capable of keeping the margin of defeat low, but Arsenal look capable of winning by two or three goals. In the end, a small wager on Arsenal with a -1.25-goal start looks the most astute option. They look almost certain to win, in which case the most you can lose is half your stake, and their chances of winning by two goals or more gives you a good chance of collecting a profit. But we’d keep stakes small. Finally, we recommend a small wager on Eduardo to find the net if he starts the match. The Croatia international looks the most accomplished finisher in the country right now, with five brilliantly-taken goals in his last three outings. Against a Burnley defence that has injury concerns, the 24-year-old would be an excellent bet to score. Make sure you check team news.
Recommended Bets - 1pt Arsenal -1.25-goal start 43/40
Recommended Bets - 1pt Eduardo to score anytime 6/5
• All prices correct at time of writing.
ABOUT EASYODDS.COM
easyodds.com is a comprehensive sport betting service that helps you find the BEST ODDS on offer from leading bookmakers, betting exchanges and spread betting firms and then helps you place your bet at the BestPrice.
FREE to register!
www.easyodds.com
Andrew Newton
Managing Editor
020 7691 0660