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Betting Update; Buick Invitational with the bookmakers making Tiger Woods their 5/4 favourite
Added: (Tue Jan 22 2008)
A Tiger will be the main attraction in San Diego this week but it won’t be one from the famous City Zoo. This one will be prowling the fairways and greens of the South Course at Torrey Pines.
Yes Mr Woods is back in town in search of his fourth successive Buick Invitational. However, his arch-rival Phil Mickelson may miss out on trying to win the title for the third time as he is reportedly suffering from respiratory problems. Nevertheless, the field is still a strong one with 11 of the world’s top-25 players taking part at the venue for this year’s US Open. So there could be some interesting pointers with that event in mind, especially as there are some players taking part this week who don’t normally stop off in San Diego.
Not so lucky Jim
Jim Furyk for instance has missed the cut in the Buick Invitational on his two previous starts, while Mike Weir has only played in the event once before, although he did do well when finishing fifth in 2001. Justin Leonard is another one. He has been in pretty good form of late and will no doubt be a strong fancy with some punters on his current form, but it’s worth remembering that he has never made the cut in this tournament. Add to those two the names of Tim Herron, Chris DiMarco, Rocco Mediate and Kenny Perry who have all only a limited experience of Torrey Pines.
So if those guys follow a similar pattern that narrow’s down the field a bit. Taking a short price about Woods on his first start of 2008 is not really going to give punters much fun, although obviously a 5-4 winner is better than a 20-1 loser. But there must be better value to be had elsewhere.
Clark of the course
Although the tournament hasn’t been a great one for outsiders it could still be worth taking a chance on Tim Clark at around the 66-1 to 80-1 mark. He has yet to win on the PGA tour and he didn’t take part in this event last year. However, he has finished in the top-12 in two of his three previous starts in the Buick Invitational and when tying for 10th in 2006 he was top for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation (GIR). He was also the best player on the par fours, so the overall evidence suggests that he could go close this week.
To go with South African Clark, look to a trio of Aussies namely Aaron Baddeley, Nick O’Hern and Geoff Ogilvy. After winning the MasterCard Masters in his native country he was probably a little disappointed with his performance in the Australian Open when he could only finish seventh following three solid rounds. That was still a good effort and his first start of 2008 was not bad either when he occupied 12th in the Mercedes-Benz Championship at the start of the month, finishing third in the driving accuracy stats.
O’Hern had decent form Down Under at the backend of 2007 finishing runner-up in the Australian Open and 20th in the PGA tournament there. He may not have played the Buick Invitational before but the course looks sure to suit his game and he did make 14 cuts from 22 starts on the tour last year.
The case for Ogilvy rests on a very good close season when he posted three top-20s, including a fourth in the Taiheyo Masters in Japan. He’s now a veteran of the PGA tour and has got off to a fast start in the past.
Rory to roar
Continuing the International theme, consider K J Choi and Rory Sabbatini who have both been in pretty decent form already in 2008. When winning the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago Choi’s stats were excellent as he came out top in the all-round category, 10th for driving distance and fourth for GIR. However, his only recent start in this tournament resulted in an 18th place finish in 2002. That year Sabbatini recorded his best finish at Torrey Pines when coming home in fifth spot. He chased home Choi in Hawaii and like the Korean his stats were of the highest class with a third for driving distance, sixth for GIR and 10th for driving accuracy. Those figures indicate his game is in good shape and that a bold showing is on the cards.
Not surprisingly, Californian-born golfers have a superb record in this tournament and the one from the Golden State worth bearing in mind this week is Anthony Kim who was third in the Bob Hope on Sunday after carding a three-under 69 in the final round. He posted five birdies in that round but would have finished a lot closer but for bogeys at the second and 10th holes.
Impressive Chez
Just as impressive was Chez Reavie who wasn’t even in the field until a couple of players withdrew before the tournament started. He fired a final round of seven-under par for fifth place and included seven birdies and no bogeys. One of the rookies on the 2007 tour was John Mallinger who withdrew from the Bob Hope with back trouble. But if he starts this week he might be worth a small investment. He made $1.6m in his first year thanks to seven top-25s and his career looks on an upward curve at the moment.
There was a qualifying event for the Buick Invitational which was won impressively by Craig Kanada, who has played in this event previously posting his best finish 12 months ago when 20th. Others who caught the eye in qualifying were Peter Campbell, Matthew Kodama and Scott Sterling, who will all be having their first start at Torrey Pines.
At the end of the day, however, it will all be down to whether the Tiger comes back hungry for another piece of the Buick Invitational and how much bite he has in his game.
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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