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Betting Update; Birmingham v Man Utd with the bookmakers making Man Utd their 4/7 favourites
Added: (Fri Sep 28 2007)
Is Manchester United’s goal shortage chronic? The champions may be second in the table but have managed just six goals in seven games. It’s surely the first time since United started winning trophies under Ferguson that they’ve found themselves on such a lofty perch on the back of so few goals.
Last week they beat Chelsea 2-0, the first time they had scored more than one goal in a game this season, but even then they owed their two-goal haul to Louis Saha’s dying swan act in the penalty area in the final minutes. Before the Frenchman’s late conversion from the spot United looked odds-on to record a single-goal victory, just as they had over Everton (a), Sunderland (h) and Tottenham (h) as well as FC Porto (a) in the Champions League.
Why such meek firepower? That man Saha is a central figure. The strike partnership of Wayne Rooney and Carlos Tevez may whet purists’ appetites but neither man is a natural goalscorer. They can both finish, but both spend too much time drifting away from the penalty area. They seek the ball, rather than waiting for the ball to come to them. Saha is completely different. He is happy to wait in the penalty area for chances to arrive. He is excellent with his left foot, good with his right and tremendous in the air. The 29-year-old France international is one of the most underrated finishers in the Premiership, evidenced by scoring stats of 25 goals in 46 starts (+ 26 substitute appearances) in three-and-a-half seasons at United.
Saha seems likely to start at St Andrews, in which case United may finally rediscover their scoring rhythm. Sir Alex Ferguson will not underestimate Birmingham, particularly since Blues earned a hugely creditable 0-0 draw against Liverpool at Anfield last weekend, but Fergie knows the hosts cannot afford to be as defensive here because they’re playing at home.
We feel United will have chances to score, and should win, but there is little value in backing them at around 4/7 and too little evidence for us to be confident about backing them on the handicap either. Birmingham have usually managed to keep their losing margin down to the bare minimum this season; 3-2 at Chelsea and 0-1 at home to West Ham, with only their 2-0 defeat at Middlesbrough by more than a single goal. United are odds-on with a –1-goal start on the Asian handicap. While they might overcome the handicap, there seems little justification for such a short price.
With none of the match markets appealing, we favour backing Saha to score. He’s found the net twice without starting a Premiership match this season, a record that translates to excellent stats of a goal every 42 minutes. We suggest you wait until team line-ups are announced (45mins before KO) – but if Saha’s handed a first league start of 2007-08 we recommend you back him to score anytime at a good odds-against price.
Recommended Bets - 2pts Saha to score anytime 7/4
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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