Betting Update; Barcelona v Bayern Munich with the bookmakers making Barcelona their 9/20 favourites

Added: (Mon Apr 06 2009)

Pressbox (Press Release) - If, like me, you thought Barcelona looked too short at 11/4 to win the Champions League before the last 16 legs were played, events over the past couple of weeks may have altered your thinking.

Josep Guardiola’s Catalans suffered a couple of sticky moments in their last 16 first leg draw away to Lyon (1-1), notably when the hosts took the lead and then struck a post through Karim Benzema soon afterwards. But having come away from France with honours shared, Barcelona dismantled the French champions 5-2 in the second leg, playing some thrilling football and dancing their way through Lyon’s defence virtually every time they went forward.

Since then Barcelona’s Liga performance have been equally enthralling. They cruised to a 2-0 victory at Almeria before racking up a 6-0 win over Malaga a fortnight ago to reaffirm their status as Europe’s finest attacking side. Lionel Messi, Samuel Eto’o and Thierry Henry were all on target that night – as they have been in virtually every match this season – and will be focused on recreating their Spanish league magic in Europe’s premier competition.

All of which means Bayern Munich face an arduous task in the first leg at the Nou Camp, yet I feel this quarter-final clash will be closer than many expect. Bayern have also impressed in Europe this season: like Barca, they have scored 24 goals in eight games and topped their group and, like Barca, they have won three and drawn one of their four away games en route to this stage of the competition. Bayern’s 5-0 drubbing of Sporting on Lisbon soil in the last round may have limited relevance since the Portuguese side were so much weaker than Barcelona will be, but the win will have given Jurgen Klinsmann’s side plenty of confidence, and the fact that the Germans revel in playing attacking football means they’ll relish the opportunity to measure themselves against the European standard-bearers of the beautiful game.

Barcelona are deservedly favourites to go through, but the best price of 2/5 on them reaching the semi-finals is too short for me. Similarly, I don’t fancy the 4/7 on Barcelona to win on the night in front of their adoring public. Bayern have that wonderful away record to fall back on and a habit of scoring goals virtually every time they play on the road: the Bavarians have netted in 14 of 17 away games in the Bundesliga and Europe this season.

That’s why I feel Bayern are the value of the two sides. Having scanned through all the options, the 11/10 on Klinsmann’s side with a +1-start on the Asian handicap looks the pick, because the visitors’ chances of nicking a draw or escaping with a single-goal defeat appear better than the prices suggest. I’m taking the odds-against price at Bet365 while it’s still available.

But my main bet is that there will be plenty of goals. The array of attacking talent on show alone is enough to whet the appetite, as Lionel Messi, Samuel Eto’o and Thierry Henry prepare to compete against the likes of Luca Toni, Lukas Podolski and Franck Ribery. Eleven of the 16 games involving these two sides in the competition have featured over 2.5 goals, so it’s no surprise to find a best price of 3/4. I favour over 2.75 goals at 9/10, because you’ll make a profit as long as there are three goals or more.

The Barcelona trio of Messi, Eto’o and Henry will dominate in the scorers’ market – but Bayern’s Ribery is my choice. He twice popped up with the winner in France’s 1-0 wins over Lithuania in their recent World Cup qualifiers, and had made the Champions League a personal holy grail. Check prices nearer to kick-off.


Recommended Bets - 3pts Over 2.75 goals (9/10)
Recommended Bets - 1.5pts Bayern +1 Asian handicap (11/10)



• All prices correct at time of writing.

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