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Betting Update; Aston Villa v West Brom with the bookmakers making Aston Villa their 9/20 favourites
Added: (Thu Jan 08 2009)
West Brom’s relegation odds may have been eased out to 2/5 following their 2-0 win at Tottenham last time out but Tony Mowbray’s beleaguered players still look racing certainties to go down and will struggle to get anything at Villa Park.
The Baggies have actually drawn on four of their last five trips to Villa but their record of just one win in 13 Birmingham city derbies underlines how difficult it is to make a case for them earning a shock victory. There are a couple of other reasons why I fancy Villa strongly – the first being that they’re enjoying an excellent eight-match unbeaten run (W5-D3-L0), in which their only slip-up came against Fulham (0-0), since their other two draws were v Man Utd (0-0) and Arsenal (0-0). Martin O’Neill’s side have developed that priceless ability to win the matches you’re supposed to win – which is why the 6/5 on them breaking into the top four will rightly continue to attract punters.
The second reason I’m siding with Villa is West Brom’s appalling form on the road. They arrive on the back of seven straight defeats away from The Hawthorns – which goes a long way to explaining why they’re stuck at the foot of the table. Only one side (Fulham, with two goals) have scored fewer times on the road than West Brom (just three). I don’t see them adding more than one to that measly tally this weekend.
So a Villa win – but the 9/20 will be too short for most bettors’ tastes. That’s why I prefer looking at Villa with a deficit on the Asian handicap – and West Brom’s away record against better sides certainly suggests the hosts may run up a comfortable winning margin. The Baggies have already faced all four members of the ‘Big Four’ on the road – and since a 1-0 opening-day defeat at The Emirates, when Arsenal missed a host of chances, they’ve lost at Man Utd (4-0), Liverpool (3-0) and Chelsea (2-0). Rather than Mowbray writing off those games, it’s been more a case of West Brom simply proving unable to live with vastly superior opposition – so it’s not far-fetched to suggest Villa will record a two-goal winning margin, or better. If you need further evidence for the handicap, consider that West Brom’s run of seven straight away defeats has included four losses by two goals or more and an average goals supremacy of –2.29. Such figures add weight to the case for backing Villa with a -1.5 start on the Asian handicap at 111/1000 – or, if you’re more cautious, a -1.25 start at 37/40. With this second bet, you’d get half your stakes back if Villa win by a single goal.
Stats fans will love the second bet on this game – one of those rare occasions when the figures for both sides dovetail to create a rock-solid betting proposition. Villa’s games this season have had a disproportionately high number of late goals – 11 of their 16 matches that have involved a goal have seen one scored from the 86th minute onwards. The same is true, to a lesser extent, of West Brom – seven of their 18 games, where at least one goal has been scored, have had a strike in the final five minutes.
Unfortunately, the bookies won’t let you bet on a goal in the final five minutes – but you can bet on the Time of Last Goal being from 76 minutes onwards. The stats, as you’d expect, are even stronger in this case – 22 of 34 games involving these two teams where at least one goal has been scored have featured a goal in the final quarter of an hour. That makes the 10/11 available extremely appealing – and our headline bet on the match.
Recommended Bets - 2pts Aston Villa -1.25 Asian handicap 37/40
Recommended Bets - 4pts Time of Last Goal 76-90 mins 10/11
• All prices correct at time of writing.
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