Betting Update; 1000 Guineas with the bookmakers making Rainbow View their 5/4 favourite

Added: (Thu Apr 30 2009)

Pressbox (Press Release) - For me having an ante-post bet on either of the two Guineas is full of unanswered questions. Firstly the two classics come so early in the season that you have to be in the know as to which horses are ‘forward’ and working well at home and you just HAVE to be on the side of a stable in form otherwise you may as well throw your hard earned down the drain.

He may not win next week’s 2,000 Guineas, but Richard Hannon’s PURE POETRY is a certainty to run his race and may just sneak into the frame at around 80/1 in the first colts’ classic of the season at Newmarket next week.

So just do the Math, would you rather back Craven Stakes winner Delegator (three and a half lengths in front of the selection) at 3/1 or one of the O’Brien talking horses at 5/1, neither of which have made their three-year-old debuts? Or, get 20/1 about a horse just to reach a place let alone win the event?

With the selection we have a charger fit and ready to run for his life, yet at 16 times the odds of those leadings runners in the betting? It’s simply a no betting brainer!

Pure Poetry is no superstar, but his win in the Easter Stakes was gutsy and you could make a case for him being slightly unlucky in the Newmarket trial as he had to race alone for the majority of the race before joining the pack just after halfway.

If the son of Tagula can be settled in behind horses in the one mile classic as a presser a reproduction of his best could well see him get into the frame at huge odds. He is certainly a horse you should have on your short list; he is not the best horse in the race, not by a long chalk, but merely on sourcing a profit, he is unlikely to win, he must be considered for your betting profile.

Delegator looked good to the naked eye when beating the selection, but everything in the race went smoothly for him and in a much bigger field he is unlikely to have an equally smooth passage.

So what do we make of the O’Brien raiding party? Well MASTERCRAFTSMAN looked a class animal on a couple of occasions last season when the ground was on the fast side, while Rip Van Winkle is no certainty to take his place in the starting line up.

So the first of O’Brien’s charges are favoured and if it does turn out to be fast going on Saturday he must be used as a safety net saver to back up your main bet in the race.

At a bigger price, (14/1), I also like the look of the John Oxx trainer Sea The Stars. A horse with a beautifully smooth action, everything he did as a juvenile was merely a bonus, but he smacks of class in the way he travels through his races.

A distance in excess of a mile will surely suit in time, but he has class in abundance and must be respected here if his esteemed trainer decides to take the Newmarket route to Epsom glory.

But betting is all about value and the simple fact of the matter is that Pure Poetry is too big a price and I anticipate we could even get as big as 100/1 on the day; he could prove massive each-way value with the back up bet, given the proviso of fast ground, being Mastercraftsman.


1,000 Guineas


I always think the fillies’ event (1,000g) is harder to unravel as this is not the time of the year to be backing three-year-olds of the fairer sex.

More so than the colts, it is a must to see them in the parade ring beforehand to see how forward they are both in their well being and demeanour.

So I have to admit I won’t be having a wager on the race, but I think Penny’s Gift (Richard Hannon again) will run well after a cracking run in the Free Handicap behind Ouqba (be interesting o see how he runs in the 2,000g).

As much as I love Rainbow View I will be opposing her for two reasons. Firstly, I’m not so sure she will make up into a better 3yo and secondly despite reportedly working well she is no price whatsoever.

So again it comes down to seeking out a bit of value and I have to say there is not a lot that grabs my attention and if put under the spotlight I would fancy maybe having a small each-way wager on AGAIN trained by the shrewd David Wachman.

Forget her last run of the juvenile campaign when she finished well down the field in the Marcel Boussac, as she didn’t look 100% right to me that day and ran way too freely.

This filly did well in her first season winning mainly on soft and dead ground when you could tell that she needed a much faster surface. (won maiden on good to firm).

She has a lovely stride patterns and looks too big a price at around 20/1 she could well make the frame at the very least with the added advantage that we know she is pretty easy to get fit.

Of the remainder I have respect for Serious Attitude and Shemah, but it is altogether not a race I want to invest in too heavily.

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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