Musharraf Loses Credibility with America Also
Added: (Mon Mar 19 2007)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Having played games over terrorism for several years, Pakistan's military establishment now faces a crisis of credibility with the United States, despite their close military and political bonds. The gap between Gen. Pervez Musharraf's promises and his refusal to deliver has widened to an extent that his long-time benefactor feels compelled to warn him to behave, or else, suffer the consequences of playing a double game, including stoppage of military and economic aid. While Vice-President Dick Cheney bluntly told him to cooperate with NATO forces in flushing out Al Qaeda and Taliban fighters who have infiltrated southern Afghanistan, both Houses of the US Congress have passed resolutions pressing Islamabad to do more than it was doing in the fight against Islamist extremists, who have crossed over in hundreds from sanctuaries inside Pakistan and are trying to destabilize the country.
Pakistan has received billions of dollars in aid from the US since 9/11 as price for supporting the global war on terror. Though the sum has already crossed $28 billion, more is on the way, including lethal military equipment, such as, F-16 fighters which Pakistan means to use only against India. US Congressmen, as well as, intelligence agencies have told the Bush Administration that all this money has gone down the drain because Pakistan is now more actively involved in nurturing Islamic terrorism. The new National Intelligence Chief Mike McConneli has warned the Americans that the next terror attack on the US would come from militant outfits based in Pakistan. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin has said in utter frustration that long-tern prospects for eliminating the Taliban threat appeared dim, so long as the sanctuary remains Pakistan, and "there are no encouraging signs that Pakistan is eliminating it."
Nobody believes that the so-called peace deal entered into by Gen. Musharraf with Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders and their tribal sympathizers has the remotest chance of success. In fact, Al Qaeda and Taliban training and related facilities have increased as a result of the "surrender" deal. Washington now seems to be considering reducing its dependence on the ability of Musharraf to fight terrorism and taking recourse to alternative strategies. It has replaced the commander of its forces in Afghanistan and the appointment of Gen. K. M. McNeili has been welcomed by the Afghan Government. "We will quit neither post, nor mission until the job is done," he said on the eve of launching the much-awaited Spring offensive against Taliban in Helmand and other southern provinces. With President Hamid Karzai having gone to town condemning Pakistan for promoting terrorism to destabilize his government, his Foreign Minister Rangeen Dadfar Spanta publicly accuses Islamabad of "using terror as its foreign policy. Under Taliban, Pakistan virtually controlled 80 per cent of Afghanistan's territory," and it is trying hard to establish its hold once again. He regrets that some countries are "rewarding" Pakistan with economic and military aid even after getting solid proof of its active involvement with Al Qaeda and Taliban.
The NATO forces and Afghan Government are convinced that part of the Pakistani establishment supports all or some of the extremist and terrorist groups operating in and out of that country. These include, apart from Taliban and Al Qaeda operating from Waziristan and Balochistan, other extremist groups which wholly sympathise with them, such as successors to ex-Sipah Sahaba Pakistan, Lashkar Jhangvi, Harkatul Mujahideen and Tehrikul Mujahideen. Together they constitute a lethal force that seems determined and inspired by the success of a similar strategy in Iraq. Gen. Musharraf conceded his Army's involvement in cross-border terrorism when he spoke of "Some members of the forces looking the other way while militants were crossing the border." The sympathy of the Islamist forces and the Army has undermined the war on terror. Obviously, Gen Musharraf needs the extremist parties for his political survival. Such duplicity has made Pakistan suffer from a crisis of credibility. Washington has now made it clear that the military establishment will have to stop playing games if it wants to remain a large recipient of US military and economic aid.
Despite Islamabad's denials, NATO forces have been chasing fleeing Taliban across the international border and it is only when a serious incident taken place, involving civilian or military casualties along the border on the Pakistani side, that Islamabad gets into the denial mode. As Gen Douglas Lute testified before the Senate Armed Forces Committee, though Pakistan had not given express permission, the US forces had the authority to pursue fleeing Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters "either with fire or on the ground across the border". Even if they demonstrated hostile intent just across the border, the US "would not wait for the rockets to be fired, but would engage them."
Now Iran also has joined the ranks of countries which are suspicious of Pakistan's motives and believe that it is a growing nursery of terrorism. A couple of terrorist incidents, in one of which a suicide bomber killed nearly a score of Iranian soldiers, have generated suspicion among Iranians that the attackers had infiltrated from neighbouring Pakistan. One of Iran's top clerics Hojatolislam Ahmed Khatami told a public rally that Pakistan was "losing its neighbourly manners. Pakistan has become a sanctuary of terrorists. "President Ahmadinejad is taking no chances and has decided to construct a ten feet high and three feet wide concrete wall with iron spikes and barbed wire all along the Iran � Pakistan border to check infiltration of terrorists, drugs and arms smugglers as also saboteurs sponsored by other countries.
Iran is also suspicious of Gen. Musharraf's motive in calling a conference of the foreign ministers of Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to discuss Palestine and the West Asia situation generally. It feels that at the behest of the US, Pakistan is trying to organize a bloc of Sunni Muslim countries against Iran in support of US action against the country in the near future. During his Saudi Arabian visit, Mr. Ahmadinejad expressed his "concern" over the meeting and said he was trying to find out the "details and objectives" of the Islamabad conference. Tehran is concerned that Pakistan is acting as a proxy for the United States and trying to please President Bush in some way to overcome his anger over non-cooperation in the fight against international terrorism.
In this context, former ISI Chief Gen. Hamid Gul has alleged that the main objective behind Dick Cheney's sudden Islamabad visit was to pressure Pakistan to support any US military action against Iran. That would involve use of Pakistan territory and facilities, as was done during the invasion of Afghanistan to remove the Taliban government. Though Gen Gul, who led the Taliban and Pakistani forces, with tanks and artillery, into Afghanistan and captured it for the Taliban, suffers from low credibility, but Iran too has started to think on similar lines. Even though Iran benefited from Pakistani scientist A.Q.Khan's international nuclear smuggling racket and received the technology and some uranium enrichment equipment, it has since proceeded independent and managed to acquire over 3000 centrifuges for its Natanz facility for enrichment of Uranium to weapons grade.
Within Pakistan pressure is building up on Musharraf to give up policies that create a hostile neighbourhood for the country. A drastic reversal of its Afghanistan's policy, with the dominant element of helping Taliban to recapture the country once NATO forces depart, is also sought. The resolutions passed by both Houses of the US Congress suggesting that military aid to Pakistan should be dependant upon demonstrable progress in achieving objectives related to counter-terrorism and democratic reforms, has energized the opposition parties into demanding immediate reversal of Islamabad's policies. They argue that Musharraf was patronizing the extremist parties, which were supportive of the Taliban and Al Qaeda and which he had nurtured to neutralize the influence of the mainstream parties, for the sake of his survival as President and Army Chief. The support of these fundamentalist forces helped him get the Constitution 13th Amendment passed by Parliament legitimizing his election as President.
Hamid Karzai and the US also are unhappy that Musharraf failed to implement the decisions taken at the tripartite meeting with President Bush in Washington last year, including convening a joint jirga to resolve the situation. Pakistan is reviled as a hostile neighbour by Afghanistan, India and now Iran. Its attempts to play the China card and extract more aid and defence equipment from the communist country which gave him the nuclear bomb are not going down well in Washington. The US would not like China gain so much influence and leverage in Pakistan as to undermine its strategic interests in the region. Obviously, here too Musharraf is playing a double game of playing one against the other to extract more aid through what is perceived as international blackmail.
At any rate, Musharraf has been put on notice by the United States which is unprepared to stand any more nonsense about his involvement in promoting Taliban and Al Qaeda. It is time for him to change to prevent Pakistan from sliding into mayhem and anarchy.