Mr. Gérard Forcinal (67) joins EC, heading France, Belgium, Luxembourg and North of Africa and other
Added: (Wed Jan 22 2014)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Mr. Gérard Forcinal (67) joins EC, heading France, Belgium, Luxembourg and North of Africa and other French speaking territories.
London, UK - January 20th, 2014 – EC strengthens its position in France!
Government and institutions announce growth for 2014 in France. - Is a decrease of the French economy still plausible?
The growth forecast 2014 for France (French government, international institutions) is slightly less than 1%, compared to a projected growth slightly positive in 2013. The improvement of the economic situation in France according to analysts derives from three factors:
Recovery in exports, with a global growth rate anticipated above 3.5%,
Recovery in business investments,
Decline in the household savings rate.
But economic indicators and recent events tell a quite different story.
1 – Recovery in Exports
In fact, a strong recovery in global trade is not fully reliable, and therefore also growth driven by exports. Countries where the economy recovers (United States, United Kingdom, Japan, China) have growth driven by services, by construction: they are models of very domestic growth, does not generate additional import, so recovery of world trade. But this applies to all countries, except for those who are rapidly gaining market share in export like Spain.
The very high level of tax burden on companies in France (which represents 17.5% of gross domestic product, against 15.5 % in Italy, 11.5 % in Spain, 10% in Germany) and especially the uncertainty on taxation and regulations are obviously a strong handicap for export recovery. The French Parliament multiplies changes in tax rules, and the announcement by the Prime Minister of a reflection, probably during several years on the overhaul of the tax has further increased the uncertainty. The regulatory and tax uncertainty also helps to explain the significant decline in residential construction activity in France, with housing starts to 320,000 in a year, even lower (280,000 probably) the next year, against 450,000 before the crisis.
2 – Recovery in Business Investment
Specific to France is the extreme pessimism of companies, which leads to lower investment and employment. This can be related to many known reasons:
Weak profitability and return on capital, with financial fragility and weak incentives to invest. The return on physical capital (equipment, buildings, not financial capital) is less than 7% in France, against 12% on average in OECD countries.
The Company Indicator (PMI) in France is around 48, in the area of decline in activity, against 54 in Germany, 50 in Spain, 51 in Italy. The investigation on orders of goods is - 54 in France, against - 30 in Spain and Italy, - 12 in Germany.
Export volumes are showing a slightly negative growth in France over a year in the third quarter of 2013, consumer confidence remains very low, etc.
3 - Decline in the household savings rate
The recent reaction against tax increase for individuals, associated with a continuous increase in unemployment, will clearly not lead to any decline in household savings rate.
The French President has announced a decrease in unemployment at the end of 2013. If this is demonstrated in December 2013, this will need a minimum of 6 months figure for confirmation and integration by individual. If this is not reached, individual will be more prudent concerning their future and this will lead to higher savings rate.
In fact, all investigations and indicators in industry and services announce a negative growth rate in 2014 in France. What will happen if France is actually in recession and not close to 1% growth in 2014?
Major risks on interest rates and on public finance
The first risk is that it will attract the attention of non-resident investors. If France is the only country in the Euro zone which does not achieve economic recovery in 2014, it is unlikely that these investors continue to lend to the French State to a higher interest rate only 45 basis points (0,45%) interest rate paid by the German government .
The second risk is that the tax income could be significantly lower than expected. This effect could be enhanced from the effect seen on French tax income in 2013: 11 Billion € are missing, without any explanation. This is clearly the consequence of the excess in Tax pressure.
The third risk is that a recession in 2014 would prevent any improvement in public finances. A deficit slightly below 4% of gross domestic product in 2014 with close to 1 % growth is expected, if the real growth is in the range of -0,5 %, the deficit goes back to 4.5% of Gross Product. The worst risk is finally of course that if growth was for example – 0,5%, with productivity gains of around 0.7 % over the year, employment in firms decline by 12% , the number of unemployed increase by more than 200,000 in 2014, and the political and social situation would obviously be very complicated.
The worst case is not necessarily the most probable. With a very high tax rate, with public expenses left without a strong reduction plan, there is no more room for action in case of a decrease in the economy. So, year 2014 will be extremely sensitive and will need a continuous attention to keep the public “car” on the “road”.
Mr. Gérard Forcinal -
Gérard Forcinal est le fondateur et le Directeur Exécutif de “Sulpice Coach Investissement”, basé à Paris, France et “Finance Ingénierie Pacifique” base à Papeete, French Polynesia. Ces sociétés proposent des services financiers complets pour l’investissement dans plusieurs domaines depuis 1999. Les principales activités concernées ont été le secteur maritime et les navires, l’immobilier et l’industriel.
Les montages financiers ont souvent été structurés avec une optimisation fiscale, au moyen de leasing fiscal ou d’outils spécifiques du droit français ou polynésien.
Gérard FORCINAL est né et a fait ses études en France, et il a également travaillé plusieurs années en Polynésie française (Pacifique sud). Il est Docteur en Sciences Physiques et Diplômé en Administration des Entreprises. Il a occupé plusieurs positions en Finance et Administration dans des grands groupes internationaux (Philips, Alstom et Alcatel) jusqu’en 1999, où il a commencé son activité individuelle.
Il est actuellement actif sur deux domaines :
Financement de navires avec optimisation fiscale (sous conditions) : navires commerciaux à usage de transport de marchandise ou de personnes, navires de croisière, Yachts.
Cession d’Hôtels, en coopération avec une structure dédiée localisée à Paris : mise en contact de vendeurs et d’acheteurs, pour les murs ou le fonds de commerce, pour des hôtels situés dans des régions à fort potentiel touristique : Paris et Côte d’Azur.
Mr. Gérard FORCINAL
Gérard FORCINAL is founder and Executive Director of “Sulpice Coach Investissement”, based in Paris, France and “Finance Ingénierie Pacifique” located in Papeete, French Polynesia that have provided complete financial services for investment in several fields since 1999. Focus has been on maritime and vessels projects, real estate and industry.
The Funding packages were often structured with tax optimization, through Tax Lease, or specific French and Polynesian tools.
Gérard FORCINAL was born and raised in France, but worked several years in French Polynesia (South Pacific). He is Doctor in Physical Science and graduated in Business Administration. He held Finance and Administration positions in International Fields for big international Companies (Philips, Alstom and Alcatel) until 1999, when he started his own business.
He now specializes in two fields:
Financing of Vessel with Tax Optimization (under conditions): Commercial vessels used for Goods Transportation, Passengers Transportation, Cruise Ships and Yachts.
In cooperation with a dedicated structure located in Paris, hotel business: link between sellers and investors, for walls and business for sale, located in high touristic potential regions: Paris and French Riviera.
SPI – SECURITY – PROTECTION – INTERCEPTION
Mr. Forcinal is also heading a highly interesting project in the Anti Piracy Business. The venture is a fleet of up to 21 Rapid Interception Vessels, based in Djibouti, Gulf of Guinea and other countries, with armed people on board, for protection of commercial vessels against maritime piracy.
Investment : Total Investment of 100 M US$ Equity/Loan.
Results : From – 4.8 M US$ in year 1 to 31.8 M US$ in year 5
Profitability : 26,4 % per year
For more information on this great investment opportunity, please contact us.
was established by Mr. LJ Myrtroen in 1990 in Oslo, Norway and moved to London, UK in 1996 and provides Management Services to companies – complementing In-house Expertise.
We specialize in Funding, Capital Markets, Commodities, and Business Advice. We have been in involved in a number of very successful Start-ups in different industries and countries over a number of years.
On our web site, http://www.economic-consultants.com you will find comprehensive information in all of the sectors we are involved including a number of helpful Templates guiding you in the right direction when writing business plans, press releases etc.
Our extensive range of contacts and consultants reaches out to all corners of the world enabling us to develop links and partnerships that will assist in meeting goals and suggesting new areas to promote growth.
Our Funding Program enables clients to seek for funding from US$ 5 million and upwards.
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For more information Contact:
Mr. Gerard Forcinal, Senior Partner
Phone; + +33 6130 86604
Mr. Lars Johan Myrtroen, Senior Partner & Founder
London Office +44 20 8133 9055