Italian Grand Prix

Added: (Mon Sep 20 2010)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Italian Grand Prix, Sunday 1pm, BBC1

Lewis Hamilton is the clear favourite to win this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix and Monza is expected to suit McLaren more than their Championship rivals.
Hamilton is certainly the man in form – he’s made the podium in 5 of the last 7 races to lead the driver’s standings by 3 points. And his win in Belgium showed that the car is more than competitive against the Red Bull – for now at least. The long straights and low downforce levels at Monza mean Hamilton and Button should have the quickest car this weekend – but the Asian circuits at the end of the season will be much more up Red Bull’s street. However, only one driver in the last 7 years has won here from off the front row so keep an eye on Hamilton’s qualifying position before steaming into him at the prices.

Fernando Alonso & Sebastian Vettel are next in and the former was in good nick heading to Spa – his failure to finish there was more due to the intricacies of that race rather than any lack of pace on Ferrari’s part. In contrast, Vettel is starting to have some serious questions asked of his temperament – 7 pole positions and just 2 wins (none since Valencia) means he doesn’t come here in the best of shape. Red Bull are also expected to struggle at a circuit which in theory suits them the least on the calendar.
Of the other leading players, Jenson Button is a solid points finisher (with top five finishes in 8 of 13 races) but he very rarely finishes above his team-mate. Meanwhile, Mark Webber has won 4 of the last 9 Grand Prix and continues to be over-priced in comparison to Vettel – but the car may let him down and that is factored into the price.

If you are looking at a straight outright bet then for me the best value lies with Webber – we know Red Bull might not like Monza but the Aussie has been magnificent all season and he may have even won in Belgium last time out if he hadn’t botched his start from pole position. He has now out-scored his team-mate in 3 of the last 4 races yet is still under-estimated by the bookies and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone a small win bet on him. But given McLaren’s supposed superiority here, the safer wager could be Webber to finish on the podium – something which he has done in more than half of the Grand Prix this season.

Elsewhere, one team who may exceed expectations this weekend is Force India. Their car is perfectly suited to Monza – just look at Adrian Sutil last year, who qualified in 2nd place, finished the race 4th and recorded the fastest lap! The German driver snuck into 5th place in Belgium and the rest of the paddock are expecting them to be very competitive here once again – 4/5 on a Sutil top 6 finish may offer a touch of value, as could a whopping 25/1 on him topping the qualifying time sheets.

Recommended Bet – Mark Webber Podium Finish @ 11/8
Recommended Bet – Adrian Sutil Top 6 Finish @ 4/5
Recommended Bet – Adrian Sutil Pole Position @ 25/1

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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