Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 1 Jan 2019
Added: (Tue Jan 01 2019)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
BULLION
On Wednesday spot gold prices declined 0.13 percent to close at $1266.9 per ounce amid concerns about global economic growth and a partial U.S. government shut down although a rebound in investor risk appetite in the previous session limited gains.The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1,000 points for the first time on Wednesday leading a broad Wall Street rebound after a report that holiday sales were the strongest in years helped mollify concerns about the health of the economy.
ENERGY
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher late Friday. The market is trading inside yesterday range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Today U.S. Energy Information Administration inventories report for the week ending December 21 showed a 46,000 barrel draw down.
The Energy Information Administration reported a draw down of 48 billion cubic feet in US natural gas stocks in the week ending December 21 compared to a 141 billion drop in the previous reading while slightly below estimates of 50 billion.
Base Metals
Copper prices fell for the fourth consecutive week as concerns that weakening economic growth will curtail demand overshadowed a supply shortfall. LME copper dropped 2.65% and MCX copper slumped more than 5.5% last week. Zinc prices ended the week down 1.57%at LME while at MCX prices closed with losses of 3.30%. Global zinc market is expected to wipe out its deficit in 2019.
SPICES
Moderate recovery was noted for Jeer on short covering after the recent dips. Prices are now turning cheaper hence fresh buying interest may emerge soon.Falling stocks rising demand and expected fall in sowing from lower rains amidst delayed sowing reports in Gujarat/Rajasthan are supporting factors.
Turmeric found strong support at these lower levels as strong recovery was noted. Lower rains in growing areas amidst apprehensions of falling yields could support prices for Turmeric in future. Arrivals remains lower at these low levels as traders were not willing to sell at these lower levels.
OILSEEDS
Slight firm trend was noted for Mentha after the recent fall in prices. Lack of buying interest among overseas buyers had been keeping sentiments weak. We expect light demand to persist during the entire week.
Aggressive short covering against recovering oilseed markets and closure of global markets helped soya oil in staging a recovery. In case US soya oil turns positive then bearish trend will discontinue. Positive sentiment in palm oil shall continue supporting soya oil prices.
GUAR COMPLEX
Guar found strong support near the 8000 mark even as lack of export demand amidst weak tone in crude oil prevented strong recovery in prices.Falling crude oil prices amidst firm Rupee also restricted the northward movements. But reports of lower arrivals of new crop amidst prospects of fall in sowing area will be bullish factors.
OTHERS
Downside is expected to remain capped this considering that the daily supply of the crop is decreasing gradually while current spot prices are quite cheaper. Soy bean ended the day significantly higher yesterday.
As major oilseeds mainly soy bean posted smart gain, RM seed started moving after morning weakness. Positive tone in palm oil also helped futures market to recover. It should be noted that palm oil influences RM seed oil which ultimately impacts the direction of RM seed prices.
Last week Castor started a week on negative note but found enough support near the level of 4900 and bounce back from lower level with good volume. Last week Castor made a low of 4908 and closed at 5128 with overall marginal loss of 0.27% on weekly basis. On its four hourly chart Castor recently broken its resistance trend line and sustaining above it indicating positive trend for short term to mid term basis. For this week if it is break the level of 5230 on upper side then it can test the level of 5380. On can make buy position in it with SL of 5175.
COCUDAKL
Last week COCUDAKL started a week on negative note but found enough support near the level of 1800 and bounce back from lower level with good volume. Last week COCUDAKL made a low of 1807 and closed at 1860.50 with overall marginal loss of 0.35% on weekly basis. On its daily chart COCUDAKL forming bullish candlestick pattern indicating positive trend for short term to mid term basis. For this week if it is break the level of 1910 on upper side then it can test the level of 2030. On can make buy position in it with SL of 1855.
ALUMINIUM
Aluminium continuously trading with negative sentiment and trading below its major support level of 130. Last week Aluminium made a low of 128 and closed at 128.50 with overall marginal loss of 3.96% on weekly basis. On its daily chart Aluminium broken its support level of 130 and sustaining below it with negative RSI indicating negative trend in it for short term to mid term basis. For this week if it is break the level of 128 on lower side then it can test the level of 125.30. On can make sell position in it with SL of 129.05.
LEAD
Last week Lead started a week on negative note but found enough support near the level of 137 and bounced back from lower level. On its daily chart market formed Doji indicating trend reversal signal in it. Last week Lead made a low of 128 and closed at 128.50 with overall marginal loss of 3.96% on weekly basis. On its daily chart Lead broken its resistance trend line and sustaining above it indicating positive trend in it. For this week if it is break the level of 145 on upper side then it can test the level of 148. On can make buy position in it with SL of 143.95.
Last week, USDINR Jan Futures started the week on positive note but till the end of the week, all of its earlier gains were erased and it closed at 70.1600 with the overall gain of almost 0.32 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating near to the major support level breakout with the negative RSI and for this week, we can expect downside movement in it.
For this week, traders can adopt selling from the major support level breakout strategy in it and below the level of 69.9000 it can test the level of 69.4125 during the week. Trades can make sell position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 70.3125
Last week, GBPINR Jan Futures started the week on negative note and after that it witnessed choppy movement for the remaining part of the week. It made a low of 88.8550 during the week and closed at 89.1350 with the overall loss of 0.21 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating near to the major support level breakout with the negative RSI and for this week, we can expect downside movement in it.
For this week, traders can adopt selling from the major support level breakout strategy in it and below the level of 88.7500 it can test the level of 88.2525 during the week. Trades can make sell position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 89.1125
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