Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital Nov 27 2017
Added: (Mon Nov 27 2017)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Gold and Silver prices have found bases and look set to remain range bound for now. The lack of any immediate geopolitical tension over North Korea has reduced the need for haven demand. With equities still generally upbeat, the opportunity cost of holding bullion is high, but the fact precious metals prices are not trending lower given the strength in equities is noteworthy. The weaker dollar should help underpin firmer precious metals prices. The weaker tone from the FOMC minutes has pushed the dollar lower as seen by the dollar index that has fallen to 93.22, down from 95.15 in late October and early November. The jury is still out whether the September-to-November rebound is a counter trend move within the 2017 downward trend, or is the start of a revival. Our view has been that the dollar has turned a corner and will continue to trend higher, at least into the first quarter of 2018 – a move in the dollar index below 92.50 would make us rethink this view. The Fed's cautious view of inflation could lead to a longer period of low interest rates, providing a solid platform for gold investment, said Cameron Alexander, analyst with Thomson Reuters-owned metals consultancy GFMS. Silver slipped 1.8 percent for the week and is poised for its first weekly decline in three weeks.
✍ BASE METAL
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Thursday November 23, with prices down by an average of 0.4%. Lead (-1.2%) and nickel (-1.1%) lead on the downside, while the rest are between unchanged and down by 0.2%. Three-month copper prices are off by 0.2% at $6,922 per tonne. Volume has been average with 6,300 lots traded as of 07:14 GMT. This follows a mixed performance on Wednesday in which aluminium and copper prices rose by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively, lead prices fell by 0.6% and the rest were little changed. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the base metals complex is split into two camps: lead prices are giving the worst performance with a 2.4% drop, tin prices are down by 1% and copper prices are off by 0.1% at 53,930 yuan ($8,150) per tonne, while aluminium, nickel and zinc prices are up by 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Spot copper prices in Changjiang are off by 20 yuan per tonne at 53,780-53,950 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio is unchanged at 7.79. Copper’s latest rebound pushed last week. The same is true for zinc and nickel prices, while lead prices are recovered and aluminium and tin are consolidating.
Oil prices are at their highest since the start of the year, after rising above the key $50-a-barrel mark in September and holding those gains. Rather than pure speculation, this move is rooted in fundamentals: falling inventories and increasing demand. The outlook for crude is no less bright as U.S. fiscal stimulus, in the form of tax cuts financed by additional deficit spending, could also send oil prices higher.
In the U.S., total stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are down 5.6 percent from a year ago, with distillate inventories lower by 14.4 percent at a time when economic growth has been solid and diesel demand is likely to remain strong. Plus, heating oil demand will soon kick in as the winter approaches. And if refinery runs increase to meet these product deficits — which seems likely — demand for crude would strengthen, further boosting prices.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
Last week, MCX Copper prices traded in bullish trend for the entire week, as buyers take advantage of relatively cheap prices and extremely oversold conditions. The current rally suggests the worst of the selling may be over at least temporarily and that the market may be getting ready to resume its uptrend. Recently market broken its down trend channel and sustaining above it indicating further upside in coming session supported by 50-day moving average level at Rs. 450. Resistance zone seen between the Rs. 459 - 460. Momentum still positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating in the buying zone on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.
BUY COPPER DEC ABOVE 460 TGT 470 SL 450
The primary trend is bullish on daily basis as displayed. As we can see the previous chart market price on its important support level and we are expecting market can move up from lower level supported by 100 days moving average. It can be facing near resistance level at Rs. 162 and support level at Rs. 159. Above the resistance level we can see the next target near of Rs. 164, 165. Investors can follow the buy on dips strategy for intra day to mid term basis. Apart from this below the support level could see a test of level 153.
BUY LEAD DEC ABOVE 162 TGT 164 SL 159
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
NCDEX Jeera closed higher on Friday mainly on short covering as market participants see some improving physical demand. The acreage under the jeera is likely to higher in the ongoing rabi season. In Gujarat, jeera sowing reached about 1.32 lakh ha this year compared to 1 lakh ha last year as on 20 th Nov. As per government data, Jeera exports during first five month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 63,085 tonnes, down 2.6% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Aug increase 46% on year to 13,879 tn. On the import front, country imported about 1,044 tonnes of jeera during the month of August about 209% higher than last year imports for the month.
Turmeric Dec futures closed higher on short covering on Friday mainly on improved demand and created fresh positions in April contract. Prices may be supportive on expectation of up country demand. There are reports good supplies from the government auctions but due to end of season the stocks are diminishing with the physical traders. The export of turmeric is down by 17.4% to 49,186 tonnes for the first 5 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals increase for first 15 days in November to 4,577 tonnes compared to 3,457 tonnes in 2 nd half of October according to Agmarknet data.
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
MCX CPO prices have increased about 7.8% during last week as centre has raised the import duty on crude palm oil to 30% from 15% and on refined oil to 40% from 25% in a bid to curb cheaper shipments and boost local prices for supporting farmers and refiners. Moreover, for the second half of Nov, base import price for crude palm oil and refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil were raised by $8 per tn each. Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, marking a second session of gains in five, buoyed by stronger crude oil prices and a weaker ringgit. Losses in the ringgit, palm's currency of trade, supported the edible oil by making it cheaper for holders of foreign currencies. Malaysian palm oil futures down 3%, on track for a fourth consecutive week of decline, as sentiment turned bearish on India’s decision to raise import tax on edible oils to the highest in over a decade, and the strengthening of local palm oil currency. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during November 1 to 20 fell 8.8 per cent to 882,943 tonnes from 967,707 tonnes shipped during October 1 to 20.
Refine SoY Oil Dec close higher last week jumped more than 5% as the government raised the duty of the crude soy oil to 30% from 17.5% to support domestic oilseed industry and farmers. The physical demand also increased from the bulk buyers on anticipation of further rise in prices. For the second half of November, government raised the base import price of all edible oils, with the steepest increase of $23 per tonnes in crude soyoil. The government also increased the duty on soybean to 45% from 30%. As per latest SEA import report, Soybean oil imports slumped 21% to 220,200 tons in October from a year earlier while imports dropped during the oil year ended Oct. 31 by 22 % to 3.32 mt. Moreover, firm international prices, higher import duty and good demand from the stockists is supporting edible oil prices in India despite higher stocks and record oilseed production.
✍ OTHER COMPLEX
Chana Dec futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking but traded positive last week as the market participants tracking firm trend in physical market. Recently, government removed export curbs on all varieties of pulses to ensure farmers get remunerative prices as domestic rates have crashed below MSP in view of record production. Earlier, Chana was pressured by good start to rabi sowing and higher stock levels in the country. Moreover, government which is sitting on a buffer stock of 18 lakh tonnes is set to dispose of 5 lt pulses by March next year will ease prices in domestic market.. As per government sowing data chana is planted in 69.7 lakh ha as on 17 Nov, up by 38% compared to 43.9 lakh ha last year. Moreover to encourage farmers to plant more chana, Government increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per quintal. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt.
MCX Cotton Nov futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking at higher levels tract as arrivals have peaked on the domestic markets. According to trade sources, about 2.63 lakh bales have arrived in the Indian markets yesterday. Cotton arrivals in the country increased to 6.06 lt in during first 20 days of the month compared to 4.1 lt last 20 days in October. The CAI has estimated cotton crop for the 2017-18 season at 375 lakh bales of 170 kgs each but the production may be much lower due to reports of crop damage in Maharashtra due to pink boll worm. ICE was closed rose over 1 percent on Friday, marking its biggest weekly gain in over two months, after the release of U.S. export sales data amid a weaker dollar. The USDA reported 17/18 upland cotton export sales of 357,026 RB, down from the previous week but still 40.1% above this time last year. However, shipments of upland cotton were reported at a marketing year low of 85,560 RB.
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
NCDEX Soybean futures closed higher for second consecutive week tracking good physical demand after hike in edible oil imports which increase domestic crushing. Soybean prices are still trading lower than MSP as soybean arrivals have peaked. As per Agmarknet data, the arrivals in 1 - 20 Nov increased to 10.13 lt compared to last year arrivals for the same period. Total exports of soy oil meal in the first seven months of the fiscal started April is almost 5 times higher to 5.37 lakh tons compared to 1.07 lakh tons last year.Soybean futures are expected to trade higher on good demand for new season crop for crushing as edible oil import duty is hiked. However, balanced demand and supply scenario may keep the prices sideways.
BUY SYBENIDR DEC ABOVE 3034 TGT 3100 SL 2990.
COCCUDAKL witnessed flat movement at NCDEX. Prices are moving range-bound in between Rs1570-1470. Market is facing good support at the level of Rs. 1550 supported by 50 days moving average and getting bounce back and recently market has broken its trading range appearing on the chart image. Technically we believe that market can move higher from lower level and if market could break its trading range. Recently it is facing important resistance of psychological number at Rs. 1600 if market sustain above this level it can move to the level of Rs. 1700 & Rs. 1800 . Also market also forming higher highs and higher low indicating upside momentum. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating in the buying zone on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.
BUY COCUDAKL DEC ABOVE 1650 TGT 1770 SL 1580
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