Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 31 Oct 2017
Added: (Tue Oct 31 2017)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Last week, spot and MCX gold prices are trading lower by around 1 percent as dollar gained sharply after the ECB press conference. The ECB in its latest meeting said it would trim bond purchases to 30 billion euro from 60 billion euros but extended quantitative easing by nine months to September 2018 while the interest rates remain unchanged. Besides, President Donald Trump's search for the next Fed chair has come down to Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford University economist John Taylor, thereby making it highly likely that the new chief would be a hawk. The rate hikes - one in December and one more next year, and three rate hikes in 2018, are likely to move more rapidly than previously expected under Taylor.The bank also decided to cut back bond purchases, a widely expected move that was factored into gold prices and the dollar, and the extension of the bond-buying program took the wind out of the euro's rally against the dollar. European stock markets gained following the decision as investors started to price out future rate increases, moving away from safe-haven gold and bonds and into stocks and other assets perceived as risky. A strong greenback makes dollar-priced gold costlier for non-U.S. investors. Also weighing on gold and boosting the dollar was fresh speculation that the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair could be a policy hawk following reports that current Chair Janet Yellen is out of the running. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump polled Republicans on whether they would prefer Stanford University economist John Taylor or Fed Governor Jerome Powell for the job. More senators preferred Taylor.
Gold prices rose on Friday, reversing earlier losses as the Catalonian parliament's declaration of independence bolstered safe haven demand for the precious metal.Gold futures for December delivery settled up 0.51% at $1,276.06 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had earlier dropped to a three week low of $1,263.80. For the week gold prices were down 0.68%.Catalonia’s parliament on Friday declared independence from Spain, adding to fears over instability in the European Union. The moves prompted Spain’s prime minister to sack the Catalan government and call elections next month. Bullion is often used as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, while riskier assets such as equities are generally sold off.Gold’s gains were held in check as the U.S. dollar continued to trade near three month highs against a currency basket.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.18% at 94.72 in late trade.
The index hit a high of 95.06 earlier in the session, its strongest level since July 17. For the week the index was still up 1.33%, its largest weekly increase so far this year.The dollar eased following a report that U.S. President Donald Trump is considering nominating Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell to lead the U.S. central bank, a move that would signal continuity for monetary policy.Powell is seen less hawkish than Stanford University economist John Taylor, another potential nominee to lead the Fed.The dollar rose earlier after the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual rate in the third quarter, better than forecasts for growth of 2.5%.The stronger-than-expected reading underlined the case for the Fed to raise interest rates at a faster pace in the coming months. Higher rates tend to make the dollar more attractive to yield seeking investors.The dollar had already received a boost on Thursday after House Republicans passed a budget blueprint for 2018, setting the stage for a tax overhaul.Some investors believe tax reforms could bolster growth, adding pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was up 0.4% at $16.87 a troy ounce late Friday, paring its weekly decline to 1.07%, while platinum settled at $918.40, down 0.4% for the day.Among base metals, copper was down 2.31% at $3.104 in late trade amid profit taking by investors. For the week copper was down 1.81%, the first weekly fall in five weeks.In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s Fed meeting for fresh clues on the likely trajectory of monetary policy. Friday’s U.S. jobs report for October will also be closely watched.Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
✍ BASE METAL
LME Copper prices fell 1.8 percent last week to close at $6830/t as dollar strengthened to three month highs as the ECB comments in its latest meeting was deemed to be more dovish. The central bank said it is reducing its monthly bond-buying program amount by half, but is extending the timeframe of the bond buying, thereby indicating that Mario Draghi’s policy is more in the dovish zone. This led to sharp upside in the DX towards three month highs of 94.62, exerting further pressure on dollar denominated commodities. The dollar already gained traction after the US Senate approved a budget resolution for the 2018 fiscal year.
However, sharp downside was restricted as Chinese authorities reaffirmed full-year growth target of about 6.5 percent for 2017 despite their stringent anti-pollution measures which is expected to slash industrial output over the winter months. Besides, supply tightness was confirmed by latest figures from International Copper Study Group (ICSG) which said copper market should see a deficit of 151,000 tonnes this year and a deficit of 104,000 tonnes in 2018. Base metals traded mixed last week as divergent factors like stronger DX and reiteration of stronger growth in the Chinese economy left investors puzzled. MCX base metals traded mixed in line with international trends.Aluminium prices reached their highest in more than five years on Thursday, as expected capacity cuts during the winter drew closer and concerns grew of a supply shortfall as inventories in London fell to a nine-year low. China, world's biggest producer of aluminium, is expecting to cut millions of tonnes of aluminium capacity during the winter to combat air pollution. Norsk Hydro said on Wednesday curtailments of primary production in China have driven positive sentiment and could result in a tighter aluminium market in 2018.
Activity in China's manufacturing sector likely grew at a slightly slower pace in October as the government began a major crackdown on air pollution, ordering many steel mills, smelters and factories to curtail or halt production over the winter, a Reuters poll showed.But official readings are still expected to show a healthy rate of expansion for manufacturing overall, buoyed by a continuing government infrastructure spree and strong global demand for China's exports heading into the peak year-end shopping season.The data will give global investors their first look at business conditions in China at the start of the fourth quarter, with the war on smog adding to uncertainty and coinciding with early signs of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Tuesday is expected to come in at 52.0 for October, down from 52.4 in September, which was the highest in over 5 years, according to a median forecast of 36 economists polled by Reuters.That would be the 15th month in a row that the reading remained above the 50-mark that divides expansion from contraction on a monthly basis, and would still be the second-highest in the last five years.A recovery for China's manufacturing and industrial firms -- boosted by government spending, a resilient property market andunexpected strength in exports -- has helped the economy post better-than-expected growth of nearly 6.9 percent through the first nine months of this year. Profits for China's industrial powerhouses surged 27.7 percent in September, the most in nearly six years, as environmental inspections and the start of plant closures in northern provinces sparked fears of supply shortages and sent prices of finished goods like steel and copper sharply higher.
While third-quarter GDP growth data released earlier this month hardly skipped a beat after a strong first half, the economy is starting to show some signs of fatigue in two of its main drivers - property and construction.Still, senior officials said recently that China is still well on track to meet its official 2017 growth target of around 6.5 percent, despite the punishing war on pollution.Economists expect the findings of a private survey on China's factory activity on Wednesday will show activity in October expanded a similar rate to the previous month.They predict the private Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) will be unchanged at 51.0 in October versus the previous month.The private survey tends to focus on small and mid-sized firms, which have not benefited as much from the year-long state-led construction boom as large, government-owned "smokestack" industries.The official PMI survey will be published on Oct. 31, along with a similar official survey covering the services sector. The Caixin PMI will be published on Nov. 1, with a Caixin services PMI to be released on Nov. 3.
Last week, WTI, Brent and MCX oil prices traded higher by more than 3 percent on optimism boosted by commitment on further output cuts. Oil prices have held up as Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman told Reuters that “of course” he wanted to prolong the OPEC curbs beyond the end of March 2018. He added that they are committed to work with all producers, OPEC and non-OPEC countries and will support anything to stabilise the oil demand and supply. Further, Russia and Saudi Arabia reiterated their commitment to tackling the global oil supply glut, while hinting at extending an OPECled production cutting deal through the end of next year. This optimism boosted the oil prices despite an unexpected build in US stocks. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 856,000 barrels last week as against estimates of decrease of 2.6 million barrels, making it the first increase in five weeks. On the MCX, oil prices traded higher by 4 percent on Thursday to close at Rs.3501 per barrel. Brent crude closed at a 27-month high on Thursday as the market focused more on comments from Saudi Arabia about ending a global supply glut instead of an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and high U.S. production and exports. With Thursday's gains, Brent futures were up for three days in a row following comments earlier in the week from Saudi Arabia that the Kingdom was determined to end a global supply glut that has weighed on prices for more than three years. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plus Russia and nine other producers, have cut oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January.
The pact runs to March 2018, but they are considering extending it. Putin said earlier this month the oil supply deal could be extended to the end of 2018, although OPEC ministers have not given specific commitments on doing so. OPEC will next meet on Nov. 30 in Vienna. U.S. crude inventories rose by 856,000 barrels last week, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed on Wednesday, versus analysts' forecast for a 2.6 million-barrel draw. The data also showed that U.S. crude production rose 1.1 million bpd last week to 9.5 million bpd after a decline due to Hurricane Nate, while U.S. oil exports hit a new record four-week average of 1.7 million bpd. Tankers carrying record levels of crude are leaving in droves from Texas and Louisiana ports, and more growth in the fledgling U.S. oil export market may before long test the limits of infrastructure like pipelines, dock space and ship traffic.U.S. crude exports have boomed since the decades-old ban was lifted less than two years ago, with shipments recently hitting a record of 2 million barrels a day. But shippers and traders fear the rising trend is not sustainable, and if limits are hit, it could pressure the price of U.S. oil.How much crude the United States can export is a mystery. Most terminal operators and companies will not disclose capacity, and federal agencies like the U.S. Energy Department do not track it. Still, oil export infrastructure will probably need further investment in coming years. Bottlenecks would hit not only storage and loading capacity, but also factors such as pipeline connectivity and shipping traffic.Analysts believe operators will start to run into bottlenecks if exports rise to 3.5 million to 4 million barrels a day. RBC Capital analysts put the figure lower, around 3.2 million bpd.The United States has not come close to that yet. A total of the highest loading days across Houston, Port Arthur, Corpus Christi and St. James/New Orleans - the primary places where crude can be exported - comes to about 3.2 million bpd, according to Kpler, a cargo tracking service.But with total U.S. crude production currently at 9.5 million barrels a day and expected to add 800,000 to 1 million bpd annually, export capacity could be tested before long. Over the past four weeks, exports averaged 1.7 million bpd, more than triple a year earlier."Right now, there seems to be a little more wiggle room for export levels," said Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays (LON:BARC)."Two to three years down the road, if U.S. production continues to grow like current levels, the market will eventually signal that more infrastructure is needed. But I don't think a lot of those plans are in place right now."
If exports do hit a bottleneck, it would put a ceiling on how much oil shippers get out of the country. Growing domestic oil production and limited export avenues could sink U.S. crude prices.Shippers have booked vessels to go overseas in recent weeks because the premium for global benchmark Brent crude widened to as much as $7 a barrel over U.S. crude, making exports more profitable for domestic producers.
Exports could hit 4 million bpd by 2022, an Enterprise Products Partners LP executive told an industry event in Singapore recently.Though some operators are already eyeing expansion plans, there are limitations, said Carlin Conner, chief executive at SemGroup Corp, which owns the Houston Fuel Oil Terminal. SemGroup has three docks for exporting crude and is building additional ones."There aren't very many terminals with the needed pipeline capabilities, tank farm capacity and proper docks to load the ships ..Adding this is expensive and not done easily. So there are limitations to unfettered export access," he said.For instance, exports are expected to start from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) in early 2018 at around one supertanker a month, according to two sources. The LOOP is potentially a key locale for exports. Its location 18 miles (29 km) offshore means it can handle larger vessels than other, shallower ship channels. While LOOP can load around 40,000 barrels per hour, operating at that capacity is not likely because that same pipe is used to offload imports, the sources added. LOOP did not respond to a request for comment.In Houston, when looking at the top 30 loading days, crude exports averaged 700,000 bpd, Kpler added. That includes Enterprise's Houston terminal, among the largest of the export facilities, that had 615,000 bpd.Other terminal operators are also developing additional facilities. NuStar Energy LP currently can load between 500,000 to 600,000 bpd at its two docks in Corpus Christi, which has about 1 million in capacity, according to a port spokesman. NuStar is developing a third dock, which should come online either late first quarter or early second quarter.In Houston, Magellan Midstream Partners LP is planning a new 45-foot draft Aframax dock for mid-2018. Aframax vessels can carry about 500,000 to 700,000 barrels of crude. Oil markets were firm on Monday, with Brent remaining above $60 per barrel on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut due to expire next March would be extended, although rising exports from Iraq kept a lid on prices.Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $60.55 per barrel at 0655 GMT, 10 cents or 0.15 percent above their last settlement and near their highest level since July 2015. They have risen more than 36 percent since from 2017-lows marked in June.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $54.01 a barrel."With strong compliance to OPEC's production curbs already supporting prices, comments from the Saudi Arabian Crown Prince that suggested the production cut agreement should be extended added to gains," ANZ bank said.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus Russia and nine other producers have agreed to hold back about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to get rid of a supply glut.
The pact rns to March 2018, but Saudi Arabia and Russia, who are leading the effort, have both voiced their support to extend the agreement.OPEC is scheduled to meet officially at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 30.Traders said that a a 900,000 bpd export capacity increase from Iraq's southern ports to 4.6 million bpd, reported on Sunday, had prevented Brent from rising further.Meanwhile, U.S. production is up by almost 13 percent since mid-2016, resulting in a steep WTI discount of $6.50 per barrel against Brent, making U.S. crude exports attractive.Confidence in the oil market is evident in the way financial traders have positioned themselves.Hedge funds and other money managers raised their bullish wagers on U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Oct. 24, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
Turmeric futures (Nov) may continue to witness a consolidation in the range of 7200-7400 levels & trade with a downside bias. The sentiments of the market participants are pessimistic as the price of the spot turmeric is not improving and also the sale is very meager due to the daily declining price. The traders are quoting decreased price, after verifying the sample as only medium and poor quality turmeric is arriving for sale in major mandis. Turmeric prices at present is ruling around similar to last year’s level, but still not able find good demand mainly due to ample stocks in the country. Further, buyers are not in mood to make any bulk purchases as new crop is said to be in satisfactory conditions with production expected slightly higher than last year. Jeera futures (Nov) is likely to consolidate in the range of 18700-19100 levels. Fundamentals are strong as the stock left is thin in the market and there is still a long way for the new crop to enter the market. The new Jeera crop will now arrive only from February, which means that five month of time span left before new crop hits the market. Coriander futures (Nov) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 4950-5050 & witness selling pressure with every rise. Coriander sowing in the producing belts of Rajasthan is expected to commence from first week of November and sowing progress report will decide future trend for the commodity. The temperature at present is still high around 34 degree Celsius in the producing belts against required 25-30 degree Celsius.- Jeera futures failed to sustain at higher levels due to profit booking while Dhaniya and Turmeric futures traded volatile due to short covering. Cardamom futures witnessed some upside due to lower levels buying. Strong support for Turmeric NCDEX (Nov) seen at Rs.7050/qtl level. Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels due to low availability of stock in physical market. Upside in Dhaniya futures can be use to initiate fresh shorts as fundamentals of the commodity are bearish. Trading range for Dhaniya NCDEX (Nov) seen between Rs.4600-5200/qtl levels. India exported 3,06,990 tonnes of Spices worth Rs 4,589.14 crore during the first quarter of the 2017-18 financial year, up 35% as compared to 2,27,938 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, the Spices Board of India said. Below normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better export demand likely to support Cardamom prices in near term.NCDEX Jeera fall more than 1.7% on Friday due to short covering short covering in the near month contract and fresh buying in the far month contract. The spot prices have improved over the week on expectation of export demand and reports of lower stocks in the physical market.
As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jul) is 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Jul down 12% on year to 7,498 tn. The arrivals have been higher during first 25 days of October at 3,198 tonnes compared to 1,820 tonnes last year same period according to Agmarknet data. Turmeric futures for Nov delivery closed higher on Friday but falls on week on due to lower physical demand. Market is expecting higher production in the new season. The arrivals have been lower during first 25 days of October at 5,642 tonnes compared to 8,472 tonnes last year same period according to Agmarknet data. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, this season down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. Market participants are expecting good production in the coming season due to rains in turmeric sowing areas.
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
Soybean futures (Nov) is likely to witness sell on rise & test 2800-2750 levels as the demand for the commodity in the spot market is very poor mainly from crushers due to poor domestic and export demand for soy meal. The soybean prices are likely to remain under pressure till 15th December due peak supply period along with huge carryover stocks of about 1.5-2 million tons. Ref. soy oil futures (Nov) will possibly trade sideways & consolidate in the range of 672-678 levels. The counter is on uptrend since past three weeks, buoyed by higher quoting soy oil price on CBOT. However, the upside may get limited from here on as the retail demand of soy oil is very limited so most of the wholesale traders are procuring soy oil as per requirement. CPO futures (Nov) is likely to trade with an upside bias in the range of 540-545 levels, tracking strong moves of palm oil in the international market. Malaysian palm oil prices are at their highest levels since mid-September, as ongoing strength in export demand continues to increase expectations that supplies of the edible oil will remain tight. Mustard futures (Nov) is expected to trade sideways in the range of 3870-3930 levels. Mustard oil crushers are also active in buying mustard seed with anticipation that demand for its oil will improve ahead amid winter season. Secondly, the initial data of sowing highlights that only 25% of the 2017/18 mustard crop has been planted in Rajasthan as compared to 70% that was planted last year at this time. The ideal planting window for mustard is up to November 20th & any more delay in mustard seed will hurt yield leading to lower production next season. - Soybean at NCDEX (Nov) is failed to sustain at higher levels and ended in red on arrival pressure in physical markets.
Higher carryover stocks are pressurizing the prices at current levels. Brazil, the world's second biggest bean producer, expected to produce 108 million tons Soybean in crop year 2018-19 (Feb-Jan) compared to 114.1 million tons estimated in the 2017-18.CPO futures traded volatile due to profit booking at higher levels. Malaysian output is forecast to rise to 20 million tonnes this year and to 20.5 million tonnes in 2018 due to better yields and expansion into matured areas, the report said. RMSEED at NCDEX (Nov) is likely to test next resistance of Rs.3920/qtl. Overall outlook of the Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish for short term on improved demand and lower levels buying. NCDEX (Nov) Castor traded down on profit booking, weak arrivals in the producing centres of Gujarat amid good demand from crushing units likely to provide support to the prices at lower levels. Over all sentiments still looks bearish until it’s sustain above Rs.4620/qtl level. MCX (Nov) Mentha Oil continued with firm sentiments tacking strong fundamentals; over all fundamentals of the commodity is still firm due to tight supply in physical markets, fall in prices likely to cushion by robust export demand. NCDEX Soybean Nov futures plunged further on Friday to close 3.2% down for the week pressurized by subdued physical demand coupled with new season arrivals and higher stocks from last year. Moreover, favorable weather for soybean harvest in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra also weigh on prices. As per Agmarknet data, during the first 25 days of Oct. soybean arrivals have been recorded at 7.6 lakh tonnes compared to close to 9 lakh tones last year. In a press release, SOPA has estimated 2017- 18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago. Reports of lower meal export in September also worrying farmers and oil millers. India's soymeal exports during September were at 9,650 tn, down 21% from a year ago. U.S. soybean futures closed lower tracking weak meal prices despite good weekly exports data. Revival of rains in dry parts of Brazil and harvest progress in the US also weigh on prices. Export Sales report showed soybean sales well above expectations, at 2.129 mt for the week ending 10/19, a jump of 67% over last week and 10.2% larger than this time last year. Soybean weekly exports jumped to a MY higher of 2.523 mt, just shy of this week last year.
✍ OTHER COMPlEX
Kapas futures (April) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 866-880 levels. At present, there is not much clarity in the price direction & in days to come the new crop supply will be a trend setter and needs to be keenly observed. The other factor which needs to be look out is the procurement procedure. Around 40 centers of CCI in Gujarat will begin procurement procedure from November 1 while the remaining 16 centers will catch up eventually.
On the international market, ICE cotton futures is facing resistance near 70 cents per pound owing to the growing harvest pressure and diminishing weather concerns in Texas. Guar seed futures (Nov) will possibly take support near 3550 levels & the downtrend may take a pause. The market participants are keeping a close watch on the crude oil prices, shale gas production and U.S rigs count. The current pace of arrivals are also likely to decline gradually ahead as current rates may prompt farmers to hold their produce in the anticipation of better return this season due to prospects of lower crop estimates. According to trade sources, Guarseed production could not be more than 75 lakh bags and estimated carryover stocks is around 85 lakh bags, which took the total tally at 160 lakh bags, whereas demand (crush) is expected to between 130-150 lakh bags leaving, ending stocks for 2017-18 (Oct-Sept) at around 10-30 lakh bags. Mentha oil futures (Nov) is looking bullish & can test 1320-1330 levels. At the spot markets, the counter is showing strong owing to good exporters buying against thin arrivals.- NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl traded down on profit booking while Cotton and Kapas prices at futures traded sideways due to profit booking. Chana prices resumed its southward journey due to sufficient availability of stocks in spot markets. The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for 2017/18 world grain production, mostly reflecting improved prospects for the U.S. corn crop. Guar futures traded down on profit booking. There are reports that government may hike import duty on wheat to 20% from 10% at present to discourage imports.
Mustard Nov futures falls close to 1.6% on Friday, highest single day fall in last three months, mainly on profit booking at higher levels while in Dec futures market participants initiated some fresh selling on anticipation of higher production and good carryover stocks with the traders and farmers. Support price for mustard in 2017-18 rose by 8.1% on year to 4,000 rupees per 100 kg. The prices also supported h higher meal exports during the first 6 months of new financial year and increasing demand for winter crushing. As per SEA data, during Nov-Sep, import of mustard oil sharply down to 2.55 lt from 3.33 lt a year ago. There are improved mustard meal exports in first 6 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported 242,661 tonnes mustard meal during this period which is 76.4% higher on year. As per data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills across the country crushed 425,000 tn of mustard seed in September, down around 6% from previous month.
Chana futures plunge further on Friday mainly due to lower physical demand and higher stock levels. However, to encourage farmers to plant more chana, Government increase MSP by 10% to Rs. 4,400 per quintal by the government. Currently, futures as well as spot prices are well above the MSP prices while sufficient stocks levels in the country and good production forecast for next season is pressurizing the prices and may drag it near MSP during the sowing season. According to the market participants, chana sowing acreage in the coming rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes
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