Home > Financial > Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 20 Feb 2018

Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 20 Feb 2018

Added: (Tue Feb 20 2018)

Pressbox (Press Release) - BULLION

Gold futures tilted lower in American trade away from January 25 highs as the dollar index rebounded from the lowest since December 17, 2014, following earlier data from the US the world's largest economy. Earlier US data showed housing starts rose 9.6% to 1.326 million in January compared to a 6.9% drop to 1.209 million in December beating expectations of a 3.5% rise to 1.234 million units. Building permits rose 7.4% to 1.396 million compared to a 0.2% dip to 1.300 million while analysts expected a 0.7% dip to 1.290 million.US import prices rose 1.0% in January up from a 0.2% rise in December and beating forecasts of 0.6%. 


The economic conditions gauge in the same survey rose to 115.1 from 110.5 in January while economic outlook rose to 90.2 from 86.3.On Wednesday the Energy Information Administration released its report on US crude stocks showing a build up of 1.8 million barrels in the week ending February 9, down from 1.9 million in the previous reading and below forecasts of 2.8M, with total stocks now reaching 422.1 million barrels remaining within the medium range on average in this time of year.

The Energy Information Administration released its report on US natural gas stocks, showing a deficit of 193 billion cubic feet in the week ending February 9, up from 119 billion in the previous reading, while analysts expected a 194B deficit. 
Base Metals

Traders may be nervous about thinner market volumes during China’s Lunar New Year holiday that starts on Thursday and runs until February 21. We still think underlying sentiment is bullish we should get an update on how bullish it is by seeing how much follow through buying there is. But it may take until after the Lunar New Year holidays before bullishness returns.


Turmeric failed to show strong movement last week as prices found some immediate support at the 7000 mark. With traders expecting export and domestic demand to rise in coming weeks further fall may be limited Absence of sufficient dams is adversely affecting the crop in TN due to 2 unfavourable monsoons. Total demand is expected at 105 lakh bags approx till Feb next year as per traders.

Jeer kept trading weak last week as arrivals of new crop kept pressure on market sentiments. The new crop is expected to be better this time due to higher sowing last year on high prices


In coming sessions improving spot demand for soy meal and frequent reports of lower crop size of India and further drop in Argentine crop production outlook shall be supporting the oilseed. March soy bean in the currently week is expected to find strong support region between 3710-20 levels.  

Trend remained weak for Mentha as further fall was noted last week. Prices however do seem to find some support at these lower levels. Expectations of better sowing due to high rates prevailing last year could keep some more pressure on prices even as lower Demat stocks in MCX warehouses may prevent too much fall.


Markets bounced back towards end of last week as slight firmness in Crude oil rates and slight firmness in Dollar vs Rupee supported market sentiments. Traders anticipate the export demand to start rising at these lower levels in coming weeks as long term trend remains Bullish.


Higher Indian prices vs International rates kept export demand on the lower side for India as prices kept falling for cotton/Kapas as traders anticipate further fall in prices in the short term. Bearish USDA reports too kept pressure on prices.

Short covering and strength in soy bean helped RM seed to end firm. However in coming week the new arrivals (though in small numbers) will continue prompting shorts to dominate the derivative market.


Overall trend of the Jeera is bearish for medium-long term .Currently Jeer trading with negative bias and can continue its trend for further coming sessions. Volume and open interest increasing with trend. The oscillator is showing sell signal For short term to mid term basis .Immediate support for Jeer is 15350.Resistance for the Jeer is 16395.


The main trend of Dhaniya is weak.Currently Dhaniya is in strong down trend with good momentum and the trend is supported by good volume. Market is continue trading below its important support level of 6000 and its looking market can further go down to the level of 5000. The oscillator is showing sell signal For short term Dhaniya is in sell position.Support for the Dhaniya is 5450.Resistance for the Dhaniya is 5690.


Silver prices rose in European trade on Friday for the fifth consecutive session on track for the first weekly profit in three as the dollar index tumbled against a basket of major rivals while investment demand increases on precious metals. Silver rose 0.1% yesterday the fourth daily profit in a row while adding 3.7% so far this week which would be the first weekly profit in three weeks and the largest since October.


After last month’s sharp increase, the February Aluminium MMI (Monthly Metals Index) inched up one point.The basket of metals increased despite the slight retracement of LME aluminumprices.The current Aluminium MMI index reads 99 points 1.0% higher than in January.Aluminium prices inched lower during the first few days of February. They broke out of their previous sideways trend back in August providing a strong buying signal.

Last week, USDINR Feb Futures started the week on negative note and continued the same for the most part of the week. It made a low of 63.8725 during the week and closed at 64.2725 with the overall loss of 0.40% on weekly basis. Currently its taking resistance of 200days SMA and above this, we can expect good upside movement in it. If it breaks the level of 64.2900 on the upside, then it can test the level of 64.8900 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 63.8900

Last week, JPYINR Feb Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 60.6025 during the week and closed at 60.5625 with the overall gain of 2.63% on weekly basis. It is trading near to major resistance level of 60.6200 with the positive RSI & 200Days SMA and technically for this week, we can further expect upside movement in it. If it breaks the level of 60.6025 on the upside, then it can test the level of 61.1975 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL of 60.1925

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